After a week off for the Easter holiday, there’s no more rest for the drivers of NASCAR’s Cup Series as they have 28 straight weeks to close out the season before a champion is crowned in Phoenix. This week, they’ll head to Talladega Superspeedway, where anything can and will happen. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.
The 2.66-mile oval in Lincoln, Alabama, is the biggest oval on NASCAR’s schedule and has produced great racing for the series since 1969. For many teams, this is one of their best chances to steal a win and potentially punch a playoff ticket. For the small teams and drivers, it could change the trajectory of a team or career.
Superspeedways are personally one of my favorite types of racing to bet on, but are also one of the trickiest. We’ve all seen the spectacular crashes and know that anyone at any point can get caught up in them. That always means anyone can do well and anyone is in the running to win here. So, we take the information we have, which drivers are better at surviving til the end, and which aren’t, and make our best bets using that information.
NASCAR Picks: Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway Odds and Best Bets
Ryan Blaney +1000
Brad Keselowski +1000
Joey Logano +1000
Kyle Busch +1200
Austin Cindric +1400
Chase Elliott +1400
Kyle Larson +1500
William Byron +1600
Denny Hamlin +1600
Chase Briscoe +1800
Michael McDowell +1800
Bubba Wallace +1800
Christopher Bell +2000
Ross Chastain +2200
Tyler Reddick +2200
Alex Bowman +2500
Chris Buscher +2500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +2500
Josh Berry +3500
Ty Gibbs +3500
Todd Gilliland +3500
Carson Hocevar +3500
Erik Jones +3500
Ryan Preece +3500
Daniel Suarez +4000
Austin Dillion +5000
Justin Haley +5000
Noah Gragson +8000
Ty Dillion +10000
Riley Herbst +10000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Cole Custer +12000
John Hunter Nemechek +12000
Zane Smith +12000
Shane Van Gisbergen +14000
Anthony Alfredo +20000
Cody Ware +20000
BJ McLeod +20000
NASCAR Picks: Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway Odds and Best Bets
William Byron Over Kyle Larson (-115)
If you’ve listened to the NASCAR Gambling Podcast during a superspeedway week before, you know the drill. Fade Kyle Larson. Occasionally, it’ll bite you, and he did finish in third place at Atlanta in February, the last time NASCAR was on a superspeedway. But that was only the third time in 49 career starts on a superspeedway where Larson finished inside the top five. The greatest driver in the world has one track type, which is his Kryptonite, and this is it.
Larson has finished 21st or worse in seven of the last 12 races at Talladega. When it comes to being matched up with William Byron it isn’t even close. Byron has finished in the top seven four in a row and won the head-to-head against Larson in the last five Talladega races in a row. Over their last 11 meetings at the track, 10 times Byron has come out ahead of Larson. For them to be set at the same price in this matchup is crazy, give my Byron all day.
Erik Jones Top 5 (+650)
Erik Jones has had a great relationship with Talladega over the years despite not having a win here just yet. What he does is consistently finish well. Jones finished in fifth place here in the fall of last year, his fourth finish inside of the top six in the last six races at the track. In the last 10 races at this superspeedway, Jones has recorded a top 10 in seven of them. He always finds himself in the mix at the end, and that’s all you can ask of a driver you are betting on at Talladega.
NASCAR Picks: Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway Odds and Best Bets
Top Finishing Toyota: Riley Herbst (+2200) & John Hunter Nemechek (+2500)
There are only nine Toyotas in the field for Sunday’s race. By grabbing the two longest shots, they only have to beat seven other drivers to cash now, and we’re getting great numbers on them. There are plenty of great superspeedway Toyota drivers, but we’re just playing the numbers game. If two, three, or four of them get caught in a wreck or two, suddenly there are fewer Toyotas either Herbst or Nemechek has to beat, and maybe a 12th-place finish is all you need.
In addition to the numbers game, both drivers are solid here. Herbst finished ninth in the fall of 23 in his last start here. He’s coming off a 10th place finish at Daytona and 17th at Atlanta, get to the end of the race finishes. For Nemechek, two of his four career starts here have resulted in top 10 finishes, and he is also coming off strong finishes at Daytona (5th) and Atlanta (10th).
Good luck not betting on this car. 🔥 https://t.co/deJErkTIqB
— Cody Zeeb (@Husker_Zeeb) April 21, 2025
William Byron to Win (+1600)
It’s amazing how good William Byron has been at Talladega recently, as well as superspeedways in general. Byron finished third and seventh in the two races here last year and has four straight top-seven finishes. In the last 10 races at Talladega, Byron has finished inside the top 15 in nine of them. Being there at the end is what you want out of these drivers.
Byron is coming off his second straight Daytona 500 win and has won twice in the NextGen era at Atlanta. He’s a driver who constantly puts himself in a position to win and navigates the chaos well. At 16/1, Byron is more than worth a bet to win this weekend.
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