Eastern Conference Playoff Preview, Analysts, & Best Bets
Not as intense of a conference as its counterpart but there is no shortage of drama throughout this conference. We have the Pistons who went from 14 wins to 44 and are in the postseason for the first time since 2018-2019. There is also a Central division rival between two teams who met last year and have no love lost for one another. While the bottom two seeds have tough hills to climb, I think they could be at least competitive in a few games. Even so, there are a multitude of ways to make money in the event they are not competitive.
Cleveland Cavs (1) vs (8) Miami Heat
The Cavs have been the second-best team in the league all year and at times were the best until OKC pulled away. They have been through the playoffs together but this team is completely different despite some similar pieces. It all starts with Atkinson and his ability to unlock another level to the offense. Miami made history by being the first 10-seed to get to the playoffs. Can that momentum continue or will the Cavs continue their dominance? Let’s walk through it
How Do the Cavs Win?
Disrespect may be too strong but the Cavs’ dominance this year under Atkinson has not been talked about enough. Maybe it was due to the Eastern Conference being weak but the way they were winning was impressive. They have been consistent throughout as well as developing one of the better benches in the league.
Last year it felt like it was more of your turn-my-turn approach with Mitchell and Garland. This year there has been a lot more structure and the bench production has elevated to another level. They are not solely depending on Mitchell but when it’s time to close – he can do that. This series is more about the Cavs than it is about the Heat, with all due respect.
Dominating this matchup starts on the defensive end and putting a stop to Herro, who makes the Heat go – as we saw in the two play-in games. The Cavs have a bevy of defenders to throw at him and the rim protection to not allow Ware or Bam to convert on the offensive glass. The Cavs have too many weapons and are too good on both sides of the ball and as long as the focus is there, this will be quick.
How Do the Heat Win?
With Spo on the sidelines, it is always hard to count the Heat out. We have seen him do it consistently over the last handful of years. Jimmy Butler had a lot to do with that recently but this iteration of the Heat may be one of the more balanced teams he has had in a while. The late-game collapses got the Heat in this position but if they can put together some solid offense and avoid those late collapses, they can make this competitive.
They have solid depth to contend with the Cavs but to steal a game or two – the core three of Bam, Herro, and Wiggins need to play at a high level. If they can match the production of the Cavs big three, they could steal a game or two but it will take some high-level shot making and defense. A tough hill to climb but we have seen Spo work miracles against tougher obstacles. He’s going to need a full team effort to pull this one off.
Who Wins? Why?
Against below-average teams, the Cavs have been dominant and I expect nothing less here. Last year’s first-round series should have them better prepped and focused on getting this series over fast. Their top-end players are superior and should impose their will throughout this short series. The rest versus rust talks will always be brought up and I do think there is something to playing a few games and having some continuity and flow against a team that has not played in about a week or so.
It may last for a quarter, maybe a half but once that is out of the window, the better team will prevail. I see nothing different here. Their perimeter and three-point defense need to keep improving as it has all season – but especially against Herro. For a team like Miami, you cannot give them an ounce of confidence. Competitive games can happen in a lopsided series and I think we could get a few but ultimately this will be quick
Best Bet: Cavs 4-1 (+200)
Boston Celtics (2) vs (7) Orlando Magic
The series price suggests this will be quick and painless for Orlando. I certainly cannot make a case that Orlando wins this series BUT I do think they can be competitive for a few games. Both teams are centered around their highly talented wings but the big difference is the supporting cast and how potent the Celtics offense is. The Magic got a big game from their bench for the play-in but they will need much more to even make this a competitive series.
How Do the Celtics Win?
Boston tends to play down in certain games and that is what you have to be afraid of as a Boston fan. Nobody outside of Orlando is giving the Magic a chance which allows them to play more freely. The defense of the Magic is elite but the amount of ways this Celtics offense can beat you is unreal.
The duo of Paolo and Franz is obviously at the top of the scouting report but it is key for the Celtics to not allow Cole Anthony, Anthony Black, or KCP to gain confidence and contribute at a high level.
The Celtics will likely pack the paint and force those guys to beat them. Numbers would suggest that the Magic are not equipped to do so – especially not over a 4-5 game series. The only concern on the Boston side is their lack of focus and some rust.
To end the season, Boston had players in and out of the lineup. Not to mention, Jaylen Brown is dealing with a knee injury that could require some off-season surgery. Look for the Celtics to come out firing on all cylinders and try to keep everyone healthy for the next round.
How Do the Magic Win?
Can they find some offense? They are by far the worst offensive team in the field. Going against a team as potent offensively as Boston, you have to be able to sustain some type of offense. This is something the Magic struggled with all year and while their defense is good, it can only take you so far. That was on full display in their play-in game when they allowed the Hawks to climb back in it due to their inability to score.
The three-point line is the great equalizer in most of these games. Orlando is elite at not allowing a lot of threes and limiting the makes when teams do. Can they do so for four games against one of the highest three-point-heavy teams ever? Unlikely, but they need to force the Celtics to take contested twos. If they can find some consistent offense, they have the size to combat Boston and compete. The bench will need to play a big role and if they can just outduel the Celtics bench – they have a puncher’s chance.
Who Wins? Why?
Magic does not have enough firepower on offense to compete with the Celtics. We may see a game where they do not have it but this should be a fairly quick series if the Celtics are locked in. Quick series does not mean it will not be competitive – look no further than last year’s Celtics-Pacers series.
The Magic defense is good enough to give the Celtics some problems, but not throughout a 4-5 game series. I know the Celtics offense is the crown jewel that everyone loves but their defense is still top tier. Orlando is the perfect matchup for the Celtics and I see them being locked in to finish this quick and get some rest before the semis.
Bet: Celtics Win 4-1 (+190)
New York Knicks (3) vs (6) Detroit Pistons
There is a lot of pressure on the Knicks. They are the team who should be here and expected to advance. The Pistons are playing with no pressure, which is a perfect place to be. This is their first playoff appearance since 2019 and they have not won a playoff game since 2008. New York opened as a heavy favorite (-425) so oddsmakers think the Knicks take care of business easily. As for me? I do not fully agree, but let us discuss.
How Do the Knicks Win?
They go as their starting five goes. Foul trouble or a bad night could doom them in any given game. However, when those guys are on the floor together, they are one of the best-starting fives in the NBA. Brunson had just enough time to ramp back up from the injury and should be well-rested to play a ton of minutes to lead the Knicks to the Semi-Finals.
Brunson will likely see a lot of length on him with guys like Ausar, Holland, and even some Cade. How he adjusts to that physicality will determine how far he can carry the Knicks. This is a big series for Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby – who will be not only tasked with trying to slow down Cade but they will need to contribute on offense.
The Pistons’ three-point defense is below average and both guys need to be able to capitalize off the Brunson-Towns’ high pick-and-roll. OG has been the more consistent of the two but they are a different team when they both are in sync and knocking down shots.
Towns has the more favorable matchup with each of the Pistons’ bigs not being able to guard him on the perimeter. This also opens driving lanes for Hart and Brunson without Duren or Stewart there to protect the rim. Defensively, the Knicks’ job is simple – limit Cade and force the other guys to beat you. It has not worked out well in the regular season but we all know the playoffs is different and something Cade has yet to go through.
How Do the Pistons Win?
The lack of depth from the Knicks plays right into the hands of Detroit. Their young superstar may have never been in this spot but they have a bevy of guys with playoff experience. Those guys will be heavily relied upon in this series to help Cade through the ebbs and flows of a series – especially against a Thibs-led defense. One of the biggest issues is the secondary ball handling for Detroit.
He cannot be so heavily relied upon that he wears down after a game or two. Guys like Schroder and even Sasser will need to take some ball-handling pressure off of Cade to give them the best shot to win this series. The turnovers have to be at a minimum – which goes hand in hand with the lack of secondary ball handlers. Cade tends to force some things but doing that here could get this series over quickly.
Knick’s three-point defense is a BIG weakness that can be exploited. Detroit has the pieces to do so but they need to be consistent in doing so. Defensively the Pistons need to figure out a way to stop the Brunson-Towns pick and roll. They will have some size to throw at Brunson but the Pistons do foul quite a bit which plays right into the hands of the Knicks – especially at home.
Defending without fouling, consistent three-point shooting, and protecting the ball are the keys for Detroit. They are the deeper team and if they can steal one of these first two in New York, look out. The confidence will be there and they are well coached, so I expect the adjustments to be on point all series.
Who Wins? Why?
I thought the series price was way too high on the open but I do think the Knicks can handle business. It will not be easy and I expect a 90’s style series where we may see some scuffles and maybe even an ejection or two. How each team handles the physicality and how the game is officiated is huge. I do believe the Knicks have more matchup advantages offensively they can exploit on the Pistons’ defense – which is why I like them to move on.
With that being said – this will not be a quick series. Pistons are resilient and are playing with nothing to lose. A team with nothing to lose is a dangerous one because they don’t know what they don’t know. JB is a great coach and has done a wonderful job with this team but I think they fall a bit short due to the lack of secondary ball handling and consistent scoring outside of Cade.
Best Bet: Knicks 4-2 (+625)
Indiana Pacers (4) vs (5) Milwaukee Bucks
Back-to-back years seeing these division rivals matchup in the first round. This time, the Bucks are a completely different team and likely without a key player in Damian Lillard. Since Lillard was ruled out indefinitely, the Bucks are 10-4 and have won eight straight. The Pacers also come into the playoffs hot – winning 14 of their last 18 and being dominant at home.
Dame has been ruled out but there is optimism that he could return to this series per Shams latest report. The Pacers’ depth and full-court pressure in this setting could cause some issues with the Buck’s lack of an actual point guard. It will be interesting to see how Doc manages that, on top of how the Pacers divide those minutes with so many different players.
How Do the Pacers Win?
Throughout the season, I thought that the Pacers were the deepest team in the league. They have a bevy of guys 1-12 who can not only play but contribute at a high level. The Bucks are not the deepest team and with the style the Pacers play, it could be to their advantage. The Pacers are elite in transition – so expect them to push the tempo even higher than what they did in the regular season.
This needs to be a Haliburton series. His play is directly correlated to their success. To begin the season, he struggled and the Pacers did not perform well or win many games due to that. Once he settled in and started playing at an All-NBA level, the team started playing better and winning games. When he scores 20+ points – the Pacers are 25-3 on the year.
Defense has not been the strong point of the Pacers but if you look at their numbers since the all-star break – they are an above-average unit. Although that is true, they have not had any success slowing Giannis down (I know, who has) who has DOMINATED them.
Neutralizing Giannis is not easy but now that he is the only superstar in the lineup, the Pacers scheme should be better. To win this series they will need to ensure Giannis does not control this series on a game-by-game basis. The Pacers’ depth is superior here and that should be on full display to wear down the Bucks
How Do the Bucks Win?
Giannis is averaging a 30-point triple-double in his last six games and the Bucks are 6-0 in those games. This is as healthy as he has been for a playoff series in a long time. I trust Giannis to be great and perform at a high level.
The issue becomes how well the ancillary pieces perform, especially on the road. Bucks should expect to see a lot of packed paints which should lead to wide-open threes for Trent Jr, Prince, and Kuzma. Their ability to knock those down will be the biggest factor of the series
Milwaukee is the best three-point shooting team in the league and at times the Pacers’ three-point defense can be had. The issue comes with who is running the guard spot consistently. Kevin Porter Jr has been manning that spot but can he do so at a high level in the playoffs? That is the biggest question that needs to be answered on the offensive side.
Expect to see a lot of Giannis on the ball, as we have seen down the stretch. He’s averaging close to 9 assists since Dame’s injury. It will be vital for those shooters to perform and be ready to defend as well. Pacers like to live in the mid-range so the drop coverage with Lopez is going to have to be on point.
Who Wins? Why?
Tough series to handicap for me. Numbers-wise, I like the Bucks but the uncertainty and matchup favor the Pacers. Familiarity is there on both sides but the Pacers continuity is what sets them apart. We should be in for a lengthy series and I think the further it goes, the better it benefits the Pacers.
Haliburton should be able to control the tempo and have a huge series. He has played well against the Bucks – averaging around 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists in his career against Milwaukee. Giannis is going to be Giannis but after him, the three to four next best players are all on Indiana. Ultimately, I believe that the depth and versatility of Indiana get it done.
Bet: Pacers Win 4-2 (+500)
