Even though this hasn’t been the most entertaining NCAA Tournament social media has had some fun. The masses have coined this year’s Big Dance as “Chalk Madness” and “March Midness.” Each 1, 2, 3, and 4-seed won their first round game and collectively they did it by the largest point differential in NCAAT history. What fans need to realize though is that because there weren’t many first round upsets the Second Round games will be much closer this year. Here are some March Madness Upsets to bet and root for.
Only six lower seeded teams beat the higher seeded games in the 32 first round matchups. My first round upset picks went 2-3. That is not too bad when I look back on it now. The other five years where each 1-4 seed won their games were 1994, 2000, 2004, 2007, and 2017.
In ’94 there were 5 Second Round upsets. ’00 saw 9 of the 16 lower seeds win their 2nd round matchup. There was 7 seed-line upsets in ’04. The Round of 32 in ’07 had 5 upsets. Lastly there were 4 Second Round upsets in ’17. Bottom line we could see some water wash away some chalk this weekend.
First tournament since 2017 where a 13 seed or worse didn’t advance
Smell the Chalk pic.twitter.com/zMwsxH3iKf
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) March 22, 2025
March Madness Upsets To Bet In NCAA Tournament Second Round
(+1) BYU vs Wisconsin
Let’s get a cheapie out of the way. This will be Wisconsin’s 6th game in the last 10 days. These two teams are playing against each other in Denver. Offensively BYU likes to run, they are in the top 50% nationally in average possession length. This recipe may lead to some heavy legs on the Wisconsin side.
Also, Wisconsin actively seeks fouls, the Badgers are the best FT shooting team in the country. The Cougars are a disciplined bunch, their opponents are under 29% FTA/FGA (74th in the country).
(+7.5) Arkansas vs St. John’s
Grab your popcorn because this game should be super entertaining. Two old foes are at it again and John Calipari, Arkansas’ head coach, has five straight wins over the St. John’s head coach, plus two NCAA Tournament victories, and Calipari is 13-9 vs Rick Pitino in his career. Add in a bit of a quick turn for the Red Storm after playing the late game Thursday night in Providence and now playing the early Sunday tilt.
Outside of the Big East Conference St. John’s only played three Top 40 teams via KenPom. The Red Storm went 1-2 in those three matchups ((losses to Baylor & Georgia, win vs New Mexico (his son’s team)). All season the Johnnies have been a poor shooting team. On Thursday St. John’s shot the lights out draining 14 3-pointers, BY FAR the most they’ve hit in a 40 minute game this year.
If a little shooting regression hits St. John’s, Arkansas has the talent on their roster, and a coach that knows SJU’s coach like the back of his hand to pull off the upset.
(+4.5) Oregon vs Arizona
Oregon is a perfect 13-0 outside of Big Ten Conference play this season. Dana Altman is an excellent coach and has taken the Ducks to the Final Four, plus one Elite Eight and three Sweet Sixteen appearances.
This is an old PAC 12 matchup and Arizona’s head coach Tommy Lloyd has suffered two March Madness upsets in the last three tournaments. Could Oregon make it three of four?
(+5.5) McNeese State vs Purdue
McNeese State was an upset that came to fruition that was not on the First Round article, however Purdue was. The Boilermakers survived against High Point but they could fall in this spot against the Cowboys.
One big reason why I did not include McNeese State in the First Round article was because I wasn’t sure how the team would play knowing Will Wade was flirting with other coaching jobs. It turned out that the Cowboys players and fans still rallied emphatically to a dominating win over Wade’s alma mater in Round 1.
There is no denying that Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer is tough to match. Loyer messed up his elbow in the Big Ten tournament and only attempted four field goals on Thursday. McNeese has dogs on defense that can keep Smith from going nuclear. When they are not playing zone the Pokes also excel at rebounding.
Add in the locker room vibes McNeese State has and their team manager blowing up with media attention and the Cowboys are live on Saturday.
For more analysis, predictions, and College Basketball content make sure to tune into the Sports Gambling Podcast Network’s “The College Experience.”
