It’s the most wonderful time of the year for college basketball fans, sports fans, and degenerates alike (you’re probably all three)! The Madness is here! With the field for this year’s 2025 March Madness (aka the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament) set, it’s time to get those winning brackets entered in the 2025 SGPN Madness, and it’s time to get ready to watch hoops and gamble all day long. Which teams have Cinderella potential this season? Here are your 2025 March Madness First Round Upsets Picks & Predictions.
2025 March Madness First Round Upsets Picks & Predictions
The good people at NCAA.com actually crunched the numbers regarding March Madness upsets (their definition of an upset is a team seeded five slots below the team they beat), and found that an average of 8.5 upsets happen per season, ranging from three to 11 in particular years. These are higher numbers than I actually expected heading into this.
But my article is strictly looking at potential first-round upsets this season, where there are an average of 4.7 per season, with a range from one to eight – once again, higher than I would have expected. Here are some teams worth taking a look at this season, with the only caveat being they are a worse seed than the team I’m projecting them to beat.
#11 North Carolina over #6 Ole Miss
The #11 seed has famously done better than the probabilities expected them to in this tournament, and I’m in on a #11 seed getting through the first round this year as well – the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Heels have their work cut out for them, as they first have to get through fellow #11 seed San Diego State in the First Four on Tuesday. But I expect them to handle that challenge to enter the tournament proper.
That would have North Carolina facing the #6-seeded Ole Miss Rebels. While the Rebels are ranked slightly ahead of the Tar Heels in KenPom’s rankings, and they are slightly ahead based on other advanced stats, the gap is very, very close. That would make North Carolina a worthy play as a #11 seed.
#12 Colorado State over #5 Memphis
While they don’t get as much ink as #11 seeds, #12’s aren’t too far behind their #11 counterparts when it comes to first-round upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Number 11 seeds win 39.1% of the time; #12’s come through 35.26% of the time. And I had the #12 seed in the West, the Colorado State Rams, penciled in to upset the #5 seed Memphis Tigers even before knowing the historical stats on 12 seeds.
KenPom agrees, with his advanced stats ranking the Rams at 42 and the Tigers at 51. Defense wins championships, and Colorado State’s is way, way better than Memphis’s porous defense.
#9 Baylor over #8 Mississippi State
Hardly as exciting, but I also like the #9 Baylor Bears to get past the #8 seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs (apparently I’ve got a thing against the state of Mississippi despite never stepping foot in it). Not surprising, at least on paper this is a very tight matchup. But the Bears come out on top in terms of KenPom ranking, strength of schedule, and advanced stat ranking. And a bear would destroy a bulldog in a fight, so there’s that.
That’s probably quite a conservative list – but I’m a risk-averse guy I guess. But at the very least they are the Cinderellas I’m most confident in not having their chariots turn into pumpkins in the first round. Good luck!
If you’d like even more info to help fill out your 2025 NCAA March Madness bracket, check out the College Experience. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
