Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for December 28. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for December 28.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – December 28
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
United Center – Chicago, IL
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Bulls are the easiest team in the league to fade on the first bucket. They are dead last in the league in both first bucket win rate and tip win percentage – and it’s not by a small margin. They are the only team in the league who hasn’t won at least a quarter of their tips, and they’ve won under 7%. That gives every team in the league at least a 18% advantage over them. Of course the Bucks have a much greater advantage (53.3%), as Brook Lopez has been solid on the tip this year. With the Bulls this bad and tip winners getting 65.7% of the tips this year, the Bucks are the play.
Looking at the recent action for the Bucks is sort of a wash. Their whole squad has been banged up and we’ve rarely seen their regular starting five. However, that looks like it might change tonight as the whole crew seems to be heading back to action on Saturday. With that in mind, if we look back to the trends of early shots with the usual starting lineup, you have to love Brook Lopez. He took one of the team’s first three shots in each of their last three games with a heathy starting five – including the first shot once. The Bulls also give up an inordinate amount of their first buckets to opposing bigs, which should help us here.
First Scorer Bet for December 28: Brook Lopez (+750)
Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
Chase Center – San Francisco, CA
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Suns’ Jusuf Nurkic is currently the best in the league at winning the tip. He’s grabbed 82.6% of the first possessions for the Suns in the games that he’s started. As mentioned prior, the tip winner gets about two-thirds of the first scores for their team, which should already have us on someone from Phoenix. However, it doesn’t hurt to mention that the Warriors have been using Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is winning just 27.3% of his tips.
We’re used to seeing the Suns big three get a lot of the early love and usually some deflated odds. However, one of them won’t be available Saturday – Devin Booker is out with a groin injury. That should open the door for someone else, but perhaps not who you’d expect. Ryan Dunn has been filling in when either Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant or Booker are out. It seems like every time he does, they get the rock in his hands early for a shot. I like his chances to get one off early again and with these longshot odds, it’s too enticing to pass up.
First Scorer Bet for December 28: Ryan Dunn (+1200)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for December 28, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
