Every single year, the Moonshot Monday delivers. The Derby’s field this year may not look as strong as in years past, but there will still be plenty of fireworks, and we are bound to see another young star have their big moment. SGPN is looking to deliver good analysis, betting odds, and hopefully, some winning 2024 Home Run Derby picks on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re looking for an extra sweat during the MLB All-Star Game festivities, this is the right place for you.
2024 Home Run Derby Picks And Underdog Fantasy Pick’em
I believe that Colby Olson of Just Baseball has figured out how to handicap the Home Run Derby to a T. According to Olson’s study and research from past seasons, every Derby winner since 2016 has had two qualifications. Each of the last seven Moonshot Monday winners has been 26 years old or younger and has max exit velocities over 116 mph.
PAST HOME RUN DERBY WINNERS
2023 Vladimir Guerrero Jr: 116.7 mph, 24 years old
2022 Juan Soto: 116.6 mph, 23 years old
2021 Pete Alonso: 118.4 mph, 26 years old
2019 Pete Alonso: 118.4 mph, 24 years old
2018 Bryce Harper: 116.3 mph, 25 years old
2017 Aaron Judge: 121.1 mph, 25 years old
2016 Giancarlo Stanton: 120.1 mph, 26 years old
Olson’s thought process behind this theory is that players get gassed the further they advance in the Derby. Max Exit Velocity is very important. Batting practice pitches aren’t very fast. Each slugger has to provide their own power. Max Exit Velocity is used to determine the likelihood of each player mishitting the baseball and still resulting in a home run.
The recent addition of a time limit to the competition has added a different element other than slugging bombs. In a rapid-fire scenario, every competitor will tire out. Arms will start to get sore. Maintaining focus after a few balls and not getting over the wall is tough. Falling out of rhythm and momentum during breaks in between rounds is difficult on the body. The belief is that younger players will have more stamina and motivation to have their breakout moment on the big stage.
Home Run Derby Betting Odds
+340 Pete Alonso: 116.3 mph, 29 years old
+380 Marcell Ozuna: 114.6 mph, 33 years old
+475 Gunnar Henderson: 113.1 mph, 23 years old
+500 Adolis Garcia: 116.1 mph, 31 years old
+550 Bobby Witt Jr.: 116.9 mph, 24 years old
+1000 Teoscar Hernandez: 112.7 mph, 31 years old
+1300 Jose Ramirez: 116.6 mph, 31 years old
+1600 Alec Bohm: 110.8 mph, 27 years old
Bobby Witt Jr. is the only slugger who qualifies to win the 2024 Home Run Derby based on the data from the previous seven winners! Witt Jr.’s Home Run Derby betting odds have decreased since they opened, but the fifth favorite to win is still good value.
His path to the Championship is also pretty favorable. All three opposing hitters on Witt’s side of the bracket are older than 30. In the first round, he draws Ramirez (the second-to-last betting favorite). Also, in the semi-finals, he would face either Ozuna, the oldest foe in the field, and he will probably receive a hostile crowd or Hernandez.
If I choose to sprinkle another outright play, it would be on the favorite, Pete Alonso. If there was one nitpick, one loose indication of past winners, it would probably be age. If Alonso uses his Home Run Derby experience (four-time participant), he could potentially pace himself to a victory with his high-powered swings.
+550 Bobby Witt Jr. 2024 Home Run Derby Winner
2024 Home Run Derby Picks And Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em
Typically, Globe Life Field is not normally a hitter-friendly park. According to MLB.com’s Ballpark Factor on Statcast, Globe Life is 1% more friendly to hitters than the league-average stadium. However, if you filtered it to “Home Runs over the past three seasons” that stat paints a different story.
As you can see, Globe Life Field is the fourth most friendly Home Run hitters’ park in the MLB. Other All-Star Game hosts within this time span, Dodger Stadium, and T-Mobile Park, ranked second and 20th, respectively. Personally, I am expecting similar batted ball statistics and results to the 2022 Home Run Derby held in Los Angeles.
Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em
I had to find a way to back a Bobby Witt Jr. player projection on the Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em tab. In 2022 there were 14 home runs hit further than Witt’s projection of 457.5 feet (Longest Home Run Distance). Witt is this year’s favorite to hit the longest home run. Out of all the contestants, Witt Jr. owns the longest HR in the regular season (468 feet). Let’s select the higher on this one.
Bobby Witt Jr.: Higher Than 457.5 Longest HR Distance
Next, I wanted to fade Teoscar Hernandez, who doesn’t qualify for either of the past Home Run Derby winning trends. Out of the 291 home runs hit in the 2022 Home Run Derby, only 54 (18.5%) of them exceeded 109 mph exit velocity. Hernandez’s max exit velo this season is 112.7 mph. Without a 95 mph fastball coming towards him from the pitcher’s mound, Hernandez has to supply all of the power. I am going to doubt that Hernandez can muster up the 82nd percentile performance.
Teoscar Hernandez: Lower Than 109.1 Max HR Exit Velocity
Lastly, let’s attack the Home Run Derby King’s player projections. Alonso is a Derby favorite and will attract a lot of people wanting to select “higher” on his projections. In 2023, Alonso hit 21 home runs in the first round.
Polar Bear Pete only slugged 20 bombs during the first round in 2022 (Dodger Stadium). Pictured below are all 20 of Alonso’s home runs and some batted ball statistics from the 1st round in ’22. His player projection being set at 25.5 seems too high.
Pete Alonso: Lower Than 25.5 Round 1 HRs Hit
