Some people like to sweat out a bet for 9 hard innings – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our NRFI bets for July 4. Go here for MLB World Series odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best-hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for July 4. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – July 4
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays
First Pitch – 1:07 pm EST
Rogers Centre – Toronto, Ontario
Broadcast – MLB TV
The Astros offense has not been as good as expected this season. They have picked things up a bit recently, but still sit just on the edge of the top 10 in runs scored. On top of that they aren’t scoring particularly well on the road. They rank 18th in the league in away runs per game. It’ll further aid our NRFI efforts here that they have to face Chris Bassitt. He’s been sensational as of late, allowing just five earned runs in his last five outings – including six scoreless against the Yankees last time out. He should get this one started right for us.
In the bottom half of the inning, Framber Valdez takes the bump. He, like their offense, has been a touch worse than expected. However, he’s started to settle in as of late. He has three straight starts with three or less earned runs, and has limited opponents to that number in six of his last seven. With all of the struggles they’ve had, the Blue Jays should help him stay on that track. They’re 23rd runs scored this year and are even worse at home (where they rank 25th).
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 4: No (-115)
Arizona Daimondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
First Pitch – 9:10 pm EST
Dodgers Stadium – Los Angeles, Califnornia
Broadcast – MLB TV
I know I’m taking two of the top offenses and trying to squeeze a NRFI out of them, but I do really like this pitching matchup. IF they both pitch as they’re capable, six outs should be well within our reach.
In the top half of the first, we’ll put our trust in 26-year old rookie Landon Knack. He’s thrown six games in his short career – throwing at least 4.2 innings each time – and has never allowed more than two earned runs in a game. He’s allowed one or fewer in each of the last four games. That runs includes a 5.0 inning, one-run outing against these Diamondbacks. He held them without a run until Christian Walker hit a dinger in the fourth.
The Diamondbacks will look to round out the NRFI with Zac Gallen. The 2023 All-Star returned from injury last Saturday with a 6 inning scoreless outing against the Athletics. He looked like his usual self with seven strikeouts. He also only allowed one hit and one walk in that game. The Dodgers will be a better offense on Thursday, but he should still be able to get us three outs.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 4: No (-120)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI picks for July 4, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
