Chicks dig the long ball, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props to play on Tuesday, May 21, 2024, across all MLB action.
“Did he say ‘funky butt-loving’?” – “Rookie of the Year”
Been a bit. Blame my kids. And life. But the show goes on. Now, this is a Dinger Tuesday edition of my column and some important things to note. Dinger Tuesday is a promotion run on FanDuel. You bet $25 on a guy to hit one; you get free bets for each HR being hit in the game, REGARDLESS of whether or not your guy does the deed. Here’s what’s important, though:
- You have to take a guy with the best HR price on FanDuel. No exceptions. If you see +350 on DK and +300 on FD, guess what – it’s not a bet for Dinger Tuesday.
- You need a game with a high total since you’re incentivized by more HRs. Look for those 8 and higher.
- Repeating that first point – do not take HRs for Dinger Tuesday that are not best priced at FanDuel. If you want to do their promo, you must take the best price.
Let’s get into the HR picks and the accompanying prop for each:
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Three Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – May 21, 2024
William Contreras (Milwaukee Brewers)
William Contreras is my MVP. I have him at 150-1. Now that I’m done flexing that, let me tell you why he’s going deep today.
It’s not just that he’s awesome and hits .345 vs LHP and has a wRC+ of 201 since May 8th. It’s that the dude pitching for the Marlins absolutely stinks. LHP Trevor Rogers is 1-6 with an ERA of 5.79. Right-handed batters are hitting over .300 against him. That’s bad. You’d get stood up at prom for that.
Contreras is batting over .400 in the leadoff position, too, and just went 0 for 5 with three hard hits. He is POISED to bust one. He’s in a mini-slump the last few games – which is fine.
It means we’re getting a great deal on a guy who comes through in the clutch. Also road team batter means he will get guaranteed ABs. Taking his o1.5 total bases, which he’s hit in seven of his last ten. And a home run at +560 for him to hit into someone’s house.
William Contreras o1.5 Total Bases -115 Fanduel (to win 1U)
HR +560 FanDuek (.1u risk)
ONEil Cruz (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Did you know there’s another dude in the league named Cruz (not just Elly)? There is. He’s in Pittsburgh. Oneil Cruz – with his 60+ grade power (that’s nerd math for ‘really good’), goes up against the San Francisco Giants and RHP Logan Webb and will likely send one into the Alleghany.
Webb is generally lights out…..at home. He is nightmare fuel on the road – with an ERA over 5.
Webb being bad on the road is only half of this pizza pie of skyrockets (mmmm, pizza). The other half is that Cruz is a lefty and absolutely DRILLS right-handed pitching. He has an OPS of 1.079 and an ISO of .321 against RHP since May 7th. It’s a dream matchup…oh, and Webb is worse against lefties. See the below graphic from Outlier.Bet.
I’m taking his bases because the rest of the team stinks, and I don’t want to have to worry about anyone but Cruz.
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases +135 DraftKings
HR +600 Fanduel (.1u)
Sal Perez (Kansas City Royals)
Sal Perez is ageless. The dude played for the 2014 World Series champion Royals and is STILL mashing. Especially against right-handed pitching. He has an OPS of .924 over the last two weeks against them. Over the past week, it’s even better – 1.176! We love old men who hit home runs here at SGPN and this guy fits that model to a T.
Case Mize is going for Detroit, and the righties bat .315 off this dude. Plus, he’s already given up 4 home runs this year. Need another reason? His ERA on the road is twice that at home. He stinks. I can say it.
We’re going to take Sal’s over 1.5 total base prop at +100. He’s hit this in four of his last five games, and he just hit a bomb yesterday. The wind is blowing out to right, but we like Sal to launch one over the waterfall in center field.
Sal Perez o1.5 Total Bases +100 MGM (1u risk)
HR +480 FanDuel (.1u)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here: https://lnk.bet/t/KlwtENA
We’ll be back with more later on, but for now, enjoy these home run props for today, May 21, AND LET IT RIDE!
