2019 MLB Win Totals & Division Odds: National League East

Finally, we have a competitive division here, and not just a competitive one, but the best in baseball in my estimation. Bryce Harper will dominate the headlines of this division, but The Nationals are a much better team without him. Philadelphia is certainly being priced as high as oddsmakers can, knowing they’ll still get public Bryce Harper money. That’s before we even talk about the reigning division winner The Braves who hold maybe the best young player in baseball, and the most improved team in baseball The Mets. Yes, Miami is openly tanking, but this four horse race is going to be great to watch all season.

Odds To Win Division

Philadelphia Phillies (+200)

Washington Nationals (+225)

New York Mets (+300)

Atlanta Braves (+350)

Miami Marlins (+30000)

Washington Nationals: 89 Wins

Throughout this process of previewing teams, I’ve come to terms with the fact that I deeply discounted The Nationals. It’s not necessarily that I love their season win total, they play in the toughest division in baseball top to bottom, which hurts. The obvious narrative here is Bryce Harper leaving, but the Dominican Bryce Harper, Juan Soto steps right in. When you look at this team top to bottom, there’s literally three MVP candidates (Turner, Rendon, Soto), The odds on favorite for NL rookie of the year in Robles, two Cy-Young candidates, and a great number three starter in Corbin. They are young in most places, but blend veteran leadership throughout. Again, my concern with this team is that they play in this division that is going to absolutely crush each other in terms of wins, but they are more well equipped post Harper than people realize.

Arrivals: RHP Kyle BArraclough, HP Patrick Corbin, C Yan Gomes, RHP Anibal Sanchez

Departures: OF Bryce Harper, RHP Tanner Roark, C Matt Wieters

Lineup:
1) Trea Turner, SS
2) Adam Eaton, RF
3) Anthony Rendon, 3B
4) Juan Soto, LF
5) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
6) Brian Dozier, 2B
7) Victor Robles, CF
8) Yan Gomes, C

Rotation and Closer:
Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Jeremy Hellickson
Closer: Sean Doolittle, LHP

Prediction: Over 89 Wins

Philadelphia Phillies: 88 Wins

The rebuild happened much quicker than anyone imagined for Philadelphia, turbo charged by the signing of Bryce Harper, which will dominate the narrative. It’s fair to question of Harper has already played his best season in baseball, but from a business standpoint he is worth much more to the franchise as the face of baseball wearing a Philly uniform. Not only did they add Harper, but they added the most under-rated short stop in baseball in Jean Segura (sorry Andrelton Simmons guys), J.T Realmuto, and Andrew McCutchen. The pitching rotation is a bit of a mixed bag in that Aaron Nola may regress along with Jake Arrieta, while Nick Pivetta and Zach Eflin’s advanced stats looks promising. This win total opened at 82, which I would have preferred to go over that number without Harper, and I can’t pay this premium-over 7 wins in some places-for Harper.

Arrivals: OF Andrew McCuchen, SS Jean Segura, OF Bryce Harper, C JR Realmuto

Departures: 1B Justin Bour, 1B Carlos Santana, C Wilson Ramos

Lineup:
1) Cesar Hernandez, 2B
2) Jean Segura, SS
3) Bryce Harper, RF
4) Rhys Hoskins, 1B
5) J.T. Realmuto, C
6) Andrew McCutchen, LF
7) Odubel Herrera, CF
8) Maikel Franco, 3B

Rotation and Closer:
1) Aaron Nola, RHP
2) Jake Arrieta, RHP
3) Nick Pivetta, RHP
4) Zach Eflin, RHP
5) Vince Velasquez, RHP
Closer: David Robertson, RHP, or Seranthony Dominguez, RHP

Prediction: Under 88 Wins

Atlanta Braves: 86 Wins

The baby Braves arrived a year ahead of schedule last season taking everyone by surprise to take the division. They have the next Mike Trout in Ronald Acuna, annual MVP contender Freddie Freeman, not to mention former MVP Josh Donaldson is now in the fold. I worry about regression from this team specifically in the pitching department, it’s just hard to walk the tight rope from an advanced stats standpoint that most of them did, but they may just be that good. Kyle Wright is upcoming, Mike Soroka, and Ian Anderson are all on the way up to support Foltznewicz, and Touki Toussaint. The Braves staff has a bunch of great number threes, and with Foltznewicz missing a start to two to start the year, someone needs to step up.

Arrivals: 3B Josh Donaldson, C Brian McCann

Departures: 1B Lucas Duda, OF Nick Markakis, RHP Brandon McCarthy, RHP Anibal Sanchez

Lineup:
1) Ender Inciarte, CF
2) Josh Donaldson, 3B
3) Freddie Freeman, 1B
4) Ronald Acuna Jr., LF
5) Nick Markakis, RF
6) Tyler Flowers, C
7) Ozzie Albies, 2B
8) Dansby Swanson, SS

Rotation and Closer:
Sean Newcomb, Kevin Gausman, Julio Teheran, Touki Toussaint, Max Fried
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino, RHP

Prediction: Over 86 Wins

New York Mets: 85.5 Wins

Many professionals and people’s opinion I respect believe this is the most improved team in baseball this season, which I take to heart. The Mets were one of the best under teams in baseball last season as they had no lineup to speak of, but elite pitching top to bottom. In theory, this could be the best 1-2-3 in baseball if things break right specifically for Zack Wheeler, who had a better ERA in the second half of baseball than Jacob deGrom. They re-tooled their lineup top to bottom to erase that problem, but this team has the same narrative every year. The sky is the limit due to their pitching, but injuries and lineup issues hold them back. I wouldn’t want to see them in the playoffs, but day to day I need to see The Mets do it first.

Arrivals: 2B Robinson Cano, RHP Edwin Diaz, RHP Jeurys Familia, C Wilson Ramos, 2B Jed Lowrie

Departures: OF Jay Bruce, 3B Jose Reyes, OF Austin Jackson

Lineup:
1) Brandon Nimmo, CF
2) Jed Lowrie, 3B
3) Robinson Cano, 2B
4) Wilson Ramos, C
5) Michael Conforto, RF
6) Pete Alonso, 1B
7) Jeff McNeil, LF
8) Amed Rosario, SS

Rotation and Closer:
Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, Jason Vargas
Closer: Edwin Diaz, RHP

Prediction: Under 85.5 Wins

Miami Marlins: 63.5 Wins

There’s not much to say about this team as they are openly tanking and not trying to compete while they stock pile young talent in their organization. This is the MLB’s version of The Philadelphia 76’ers and I want no part of it. Every other team in this division should feast on Miami, and if anyone getting playing time right now is worth anything they will flip them at the deadline for spare parts. They’re not better than last season, and don’t want to be.

Arrivals: None

Departures: RHP Kyle Barraclough, OF Derek Dietrich, J.R Realmuto

Lineup:
1) Miguel Rojas, SS
2) Brian Anderson, 3B
3) Starlin Castro, 2B
4) Peter O’Brien, RF
5) Neil Walker, 1B
6) Lewis Brinson, CF
7) Jorge Alfaro, C
8) Curtis Granderson, LF

Rotation and Closer:
Jose Urena, Dan Straily, Sandy Alcantara, Wei-Yin Chen, Trevor Richards
Closer: Drew Steckenrider, RHP

Prediction: Under 63.5 Wins