Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend of football? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 15 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week.
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! We came back down to earth last week, especially as the Dolphins blew a lead. Last week’s picks finished 2-3, bringing our six-week record to 36-17, which is winning us cash! Let’s win some more cash this weekend!
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2023 NFL Week 15 Trends To Bet: NFL Betting Trends To Back
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
When: 12/16/23 AT 1:00 PM (EST)
Vikings Against The Spread (ATS): 7-4-2
Bengals Against The Spread (ATS): 6-6-1
The Vikings have announced a change at quarterback, which could alter this line. So grab the Bengals while you can, and I’ll tell you why in our NFL Week 15 trends to bet breakdown. The Vikings are starting Nick Mullens in place of Josh Dobbs. The Bengals, on the other hand, are surging behind backup quarterback Jake Browning. Can the Vikings score more than three?
This game falls on Saturday, which doesn’t benefit the Vikings. They are actually 2-5 against the spread (ATS) when playing on Saturday. The Bengals are 24th in the league at stopping the run. This is bad news for the Vikings, who are 2-8 ATS against weak rushing defenses. Finally, the Vikings are 3-6-1 ATS on six days or less of rest.
The Bengals are playing pretty well after what many feared was the end of their season when Joe Burrow got hurt. That should continue as they are 7-0 ATS in December. They’re also 13-2 ATS against opponents coming off close wins. The Bengals are 11-4 ATS at home before playing Pittsburgh, who they have next week.
The Pick: The Bengals (-3.5) keep rolling with Browning, and the Vikings continue to trend down.
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
When: 12/17/23 AT 1:00 PM (EST)
Bucs ATS: 8-5
Packers ATS: 7-6
The Bucs outlasted the Falcons last week to get into a three-way tie for first in their division. The Packers lost in the last seconds to the Italian Mafia that is known as Tommy Devito’s Giants. Will the Bucs be able to travel to Lambeau and continue their push to win the division? Or will the Packers and the cold weather be too much? Let’s look at the NFL Week 15 trends to bet for this game.
The Packers aren’t blitzing all that much these days. Ironically, that does not benefit the Bucs. They are 1-6 ATS on the road against passive defenses. They are also 5-10 ATS on the road when playing an opponent coming off of a loss. The Bucs are 4-11 on grass fields and 14-29-1 against opponents that have six days or less of rest. Finally, December isn’t kind to the Bucs, and I expect the cold weather of Wisconsin to slow them. They are 40-56-4 ATS in December.
The Packers are pretty good at home. In fact, they’re 62-34-4 at home on Sundays. They are also 6-1 ATS when an opponent has to travel over 1000 miles like the Bucs do. The Bucs are averaging the second-lowest rushing yards per game right now. The Packers are 6-1 ATS at home against poor rushing teams. The Packers also bounce back well. They are 13-6 ATS at home after a close loss.
The Pick: Packers (-3.5) have to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
When: 12/17/23 at 4:05 PM (EST)
49ers ATS: 7-5-1
Cardinals ATS: 7-6
There may not be any team playing better than the 49ers right now. They’ll head down to Arizona to face division rival Arizona, who is just coming off a late bye. The Cardinals won before the bye, but it wasn’t against a team like the 49ers. The spread is large, coming in at 13.5. However, which side do the NFL Week 15 trends to bet favor?
You’re supposed to be better after a bye. However, the Cardinals are 0-7 ATS at home after the bye. They’re also 1-9 ATS in their division in the last 10 games and 6-18-1 at home against the NFC West. The Cardinals are also 2-13 ATS at home in the 2nd game of the season versus an opponent. These are all things the Cardinals need to change to turn the franchise around.
The 49ers seem to be the exact opposite. They are 11-4 ATS in the second game of the season versus an opponent. They’re also 6-1 ATS on the road playing an opponent coming off a bye. They are 11-4 ATS after an NFC win. The 49ers are 30-19-1 ATS when the total is 45 or more like this game is.
The Pick: 49ers (-13.5) keep a hold on the number one seed.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
When: 12/17/23 at 8:20 PM (EST)
Ravens ATS: 8-5
Jaguars ATS: 8-5
This game is actually harder to pick than meets the eye. The Ravens just survived an overtime battle against the Rams. The Jaguars got pushed around, despite a late rally, and lost to the Browns. Situationally, this feels like a good spot to take the Jaguars at home. However, do the NFL Week 15 trends to bet agree? Let’s take a look.
When these two played last year, the Jags won by one point. Bad news, Jags’ fans, the Ravens are 18-5-2 ATS when revenging a loss. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS against teams with winning records as well. While they have struggled with Jacksonville recently, they are 32-16-2 ATS against the AFC. This Ravens team is pushing for the number one seed, especially after the Dolphins loss.
The Jags haven’t been bad by any means. However, the slow start against the Browns cost them the game. You can’t afford to do anything but keep your foot on the gas against this Ravens team this year. The Jags are 1-9 ATS against opponents that just played an overtime game. They are also 19-30-1 ATS at home when facing opponents coming off a win. The Jags are also 41-60-4 ATS playing at home after a loss.
The Pick: Feels like a trap, but the trends back Ravens (-3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks
When: 12/18/23 @ 8:15 PM (EST)
Eagles ATS: 7-4-2
Seahawks ATS: 7-5-1
The Eagles have lost two games in a row, while the Seahawks have lost four in a row. The Eagles haven’t covered two games in a row as dogs, while the Seahawks have covered twice in a row as dogs. The Seahawks kept up very well with the Cowboys, only losing 35-41. The Eagles just got crushed by the Cowboys 13-33. Do the NFL Week 15 trends to bet favor the home team?
The Eagles are a good team. However, the Seahawks have been surprisingly good against them. In the last ten games against each other, the Seahawks are 8-2 ATS. They are also 10-0 ATS on losing streaks of three or more games, including 7-0 ATS at home. The Seahawks are 7-3 ATS versus the NFC and 30-15-5 ATS at home after a loss. Pete Carroll is also good as an underdog, where the Seahawks are 18-7 ATS at home as dogs.
The Eagles have some flaws, especially on defense. They’re 1-6 ATS against Pete Carroll and 1-9 ATS after a straight-up loss. The Eagles are also 2-8 ATS on the road before playing the Giants. The Eagles have struggled on long trips as well, where they are 4-11 ATS when traveling 1000 or more miles. Finally, they aren’t doing great on the road in higher total games. They are currently 4-11 ATS on the road when the line is 45 or more.
The Pick: Eagles may win, but Seahawks (+4) keep it close enough to cover.
