A longstanding rule that decides who has possession of the ball at the beginning of overtime during the regular season may be set to change, according to league executive Tony Vincent. This proposal emerges after concerns over the fairness of the current rule, which sometimes sees one team unable to even touch the ball during the overtime period.
The Current Rule
As it stands, possession of the ball during overtime is determined by a toin coss. This gives the successful team a greater advantage over their opponents by providing them with the opportunity to score a touchdown in their opening drive. If they are successful, then the team who won the coin toss by chance can win the game without the losing team even touching the ball during overtime.
The Proposed Change
To avoid this unfairness, the NFL is considering aligning the regular season rules with the playoff rules, meaning that both teams will be given possession of the ball, even if the first team secures a touchdown. The hope is that this will bring some valued fairness to the game and ensure both teams have an equal chance at securing a win. Such a change is sure to have a significant impact on both the teams and the fans, especially those who use sports wagering sites as we will explore below. Luckily, as Lewis Humphries points out, some of the best sports betting sites in the US offer risk-free bets, minimizing the potential impact of this change.
Why the Change?
One of the biggest reasons for the change comes after a game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs that took place in 2022. After the game, the Bills, as the losing team, felt that they were given an unfair disadvantage after losing the coin toss. This is because Kansas City Chiefs were able to score a touch down in the opening drive of overtime.
Additionally, experts have drawn attention to the statistics that surround the coin toss. Pre 2011, when the overtime was determined by a sudden death period the receiving team won 55.4% of games, whereas between 2011 and 2024, when the coin toss was implemented, this had risen to 56.8%.
There has been increased attention on keeping NFL rules as fair as possible recently, and this move is further evidence of this.
The Effect on Sportsbetting
Although it might seem small, such a change is sure to have a big impact on how sports fans place bets on betting platforms. Some of these are explored here:
The ‘Coin Toss’ Wager
For one, there is a strand of sports betting that allows punters to wager on which team will win the coin toss should the game go to overtime. This leans into the nature of chance and the appeal of a 50/50 bet within the sports betting world. However, if the coin toss is removed and both teams are guaranteed to have the ball before the end of overtime, then this bet will have less impact and may be scrapped altogether.
Change to Overtime Outcome Bets
As it stands, a large number of sports bets are based on whether or not the game will go into overtime, who might gain possession and who will win. However, if overtime now means that both teams will get the ball, this will change the way that bets are made on overtime itself. The fact that both teams will have an equal chance at success will likely make the outcome of games much harder to predict.
More Bets on Team Ability
With the proposed change, the coin toss will not have such a significant effect on the game. As such, betters are likely to shift their attention from wagering on who will win the coin toss or who will have first possession to which team is likely to perform better. This will likely mean that punters will be paying much closer attention to team tactics and play style, especially focusing on how certain teams have been observed to play under pressure within the high-pressure environment of overtime.
General Impact
Should this proposal be approved, regular overtime in the regular season will become even more closely aligned with the playoffs. Not only will the overtime be more fair, but it is also sure to become increasingly competitive, as both teams will know they have a fair chance of success. Alongside this proposal, the NFL also suggested increasing the overtime period by another fifteen minutes.
