It’s time for “The Last Great Colosseum” Bristol Motor Speedway. The NASCAR Cup Series drivers head to the .533-mile concrete oval this weekend before their only week off of the season next week for the Easter Holiday. After that, it’ll be a grueling 28-week grind to the championship race at Phoenix. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Last spring, in this very race, the perfect storm hit. The Goodyear tires wore like teams never could have imagined, and the race turned everything and everyone on its head. Which made it pretty exciting. I wouldn’t expect anything like that to happen this time around, despite the same tire code being used again.
There have been four NextGen races at Bristol (on the concrete); those will be the best comparisons to look at. I won’t be using anything from Bristol Dirt, as that was basically a completely different track. Looking farther back at Bristol before NextGen is another good reference point, as well as current form, as we are eight races into the season.
NASCAR Picks: Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Kyle Laron +490
Denny Hamlin +490
Christopher Bell +600
Ryan Blaney +750
Chase Elliott +900
William Byron +1200
Chase Briscoe +1800
Ty Gibbs +2200
Brad Keselowski +2800
Ross Chastain +2800
Kyle Busch +2800
Bubba Wallace +3200
Josh Berry +3200
Chris Buescher +3200
Joey Logano +3200
Tyler Reddick +3300
Alex Bowman +4400
Ryan Preece +4400
Austin Cindric +8500
Noah Gragson +11000
Carson Hocevar +11000
Michael McDowell +11000
Erik Jones +17000
AJ Allmendinger +21000
Austin Dillion +28000
Daniel Suarez +28000
Todd Gilliland +28000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +28000
Cole Custer +28000
Zane Smith +28000
Justin Haley +34000
Jesse Love +50000
Ty Dillion +50000
Josh Bilicki +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Shane Van Gisbergen +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
Corey Lajoie +50000
NASCAR Picks: Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Chase Elliott Over William Byron (-115)
On the surface, the way these two run week to week, most of the time you’d see this matchup and probably say I’ll take Byron. However, this week, the numbers suggest something different. In four NextGen races at Bristol, Byron has never finished better than Elliott. In five of the last six, Elliott has bested Byron, and in the one he didn’t, he led 125 laps before a tussle with Kevin Harvick.
Elliott’s average finish (4.8) at Bristol in the NextGen era only trails Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. Byron’s average finish (16.0) checks in over three times worse than Elliott’s. Elliott’s consistency at one of his best tracks gives him the leg up in this matchup.
Chris Buescher Top 10 (+100)
Chris Buescher loves Bristol. In three of the four NextGen races here, Buscher has finished seventh or better. Including a 169 lap led race in 2022 that left the Prosper, Texas native victorious. Buescher, a regular top-10 play on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, comes into this race red hot. He’s finished sixth or better in the last three races and has a top-seven finish in four of the last six races. I’m also grabbing Buescher’s outright at 32/1.
NASCAR Picks: Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Chris Buescher Over Ross Chastain (-125)
We already think Buescher is going to finish in the top 10 with a good run; now, let’s take him to beat the Watermelon Man this week. Chastain has been good here in his own right, but Chris Buecher has beaten him at Bristol in three of the last four races here in NextGen and in five of the six times they’ve matched up here since Chastain got in a competitive car. Let’s make it six for seven this week.
Kyle Larson (+490)
This week is pretty simple. Bet the chalk. Larson, Hamlin, Bell. They are all amazingly consistent at Bristol. So, give me the best driver in the world right now. He’s pissed off after wrecking early at Darlington last week and ready to earn it back at Bristol. He leads the series in the average finish in the NextGen here (3.3). He’ll be running triple duty this weekend and have plenty of track time. He’s never finished worse than fifth in his five starts in the #5 car. Even in the Chip Ganassi #42, Larson was great at Bristol. He racked up two second-place finishes and has nine top 10s in his last 10 races at the track.
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