66 games played, most brackets busted, and one season about to come to a close. The 2025 NCAA college basketball tournament hasn’t been the wildest in history, but we get a National Championship that will be an absolute heavyweight match up. Florida has run through the Western Region and vanquished SEC rival, Auburn, in the Final Four. Houston ran through a gauntlet that included Purdue, Gonzaga, Tennessee, and a Final Four game for the ages against Duke. Let’s dig into what could happen and how you’ll want to wager in our NCAA championship preview with predictions and best bets.
This is the final college basketball game of the season, and it should be a banger. Which side should you play? How about the totals? Any other predictions for the game? We’ve got you covered.
Houston vs Florida NCAA Championship Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets
Houston Cougars
Let’s start the NCAA Championship preview with a breakdown of the Houston Cougars. The Cougars’ run through March ranks among the toughest in March Madness history. Aside from their first-round match up with SIU-Edwardsville, every team the Cougars faced was among the top 20 according to KenPom. This Cougars team has been the literal definition of survive and advance throughout their tournament run.
How do they get it done? They have the best team defense in the nation, and they mix in just enough offense to get the job done. It’s never flashy. It can be a challenge to watch at times, but it wins. The sum of the Houston Cougars is greater than the total of all of its parts. Everyone knows their role on the floor and their assignments. They stay disciplined at almost every turn and focus on their game plan. This is a case of not having the best five guys in the nation on the floor, but having five guys willing to work together.
Houston has the best scoring defense in the nation, and only allows opponents to average 58.5 points per game. They have the ability to clamp just about any offense in the country.
The Cougars also maintain the best three-point shooting percentage in the nation at 39.9%. They don’t fire as often as most teams in the country, but they hit almost 40% of the shots they do take. The Cougars may need to step up their volume here, but this is one way they could make the Gators pay.
Florida Gators
Florida’s run through March Madness didn’t have many easy games. They blew 16-seed Norfolk State away in the first round, but had to survive a tough match up against UConn in the second round. The Gators outpaced Maryland in the Sweet Sixteen and beat Texas Tech to make the Final Four. Florida let Auburn empty their tank in the first half, and then suffocated the Tigers with points in the second half.
The Gators get the job done by having a superior offense and pace, but mixing in a solid defensive effort. Florida has the third-best offense in the nation and averages 83.5 points per game. They also rank as the third-best rebounding team in the nation, and maintain a solid perimeter defense.
Florida’s guards get the headlines because of their scoring ability, but the bigs make this team go. The Gators have a trio of big men in Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, and Ruben Chinyelu that can crash the boards, make intelligent passes, and run the court. Condon and Haugh can dial up a three, but only Haugh isn’t a liability at the free-throw line.
The Pick: Houston +1
According to TCE’s Colby Dant, the Houston Cougars are 2-0 all-time against the Florida Gators. However, they haven’t played each other since 1973.
This game will come down to which team can dictate the pace. If Houston can drag this into the mud, they can win. However, if the Gators turn this into a track meet, the Cougars aren’t likely to keep up.
Houston has played a tougher tournament schedule, but only really had a scare in a rock fight against Purdue. The game with Purdue was also a match up that played into Houston’s hands. Florida should have lost to UConn in the second round. Florida was down by six with nine minutes left. Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin took over in the final six minutes to secure the win, but UConn outplayed the Gators for the majority of that game.
Houston will need to limit possessions, generate turnovers, rebound, and make shots. None of that is ridiculous. Also, Houston has a clear advantage in coaching and prep, and they will also have the crowd in a game played in Texas. Lock up the Houston Cougars win this.
Player Prop: J’Wan Roberts Over 6.5 Rebounds
J’Wan Roberts comes into the national championship averaging exactly 6.5 rebounds per game. He’s gone higher than 6.5 rebounds in three out of five NCAA tournament games played.
Florida enters this match up ranking 94th in the nation in rebounds allowed. The Gators let opponents average 33.3 rebounds per game. In the Final Four game against Auburn, Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell both went higher than 6.5 rebounds. In the Elite Eight match up with Texas Tech, JT Toppin went higher than 6.5 boards.
Houston needs Roberts to be a beast on the boards against the Florida bigs, and he’ll have to clean the glass to make that happen. He should also see an increased workload, and that should help him get a few more rebounding chances.
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every college basketball game for the 2024-25 season, make sure you tune into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
