The NASCAR season continues to roll along and this week they head back to the east coast and Homestead-Miami Speedway. The 1.5-mile oval in Homestead, Florida is different from the other 1.5-mile tracks on the circuit. Its progressive banking, abrasive surface, and unique shape usually delivers some great racing. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks and odds for Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Last week it was Josh Berry, who was 100/1 odds to win the race at Las Vegas early in the week who took home the victory, securing a spot in the NASCAR playoffs assuming there aren’t more than 16 winners this season. It was the 101st win for the Wood Brothers organization and Berry’s first career Cup Series win.
This race at Homestead-Miami, typically run in the fall, was moved back to March this season. The thought is, that once they are done racing this week the facility can make some upgrades in hopes of once again hosting the NASCAR championship race, which has been rumored to begin rotating tracks starting in 2026. Kyle Larson, who is running all three races this weekend leads the odds as the favorite to win Sunday.
NASCAR Picks: Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Kyle Larson +450
Tyler Reddick +600
Ryan Blaney +600
Christopher Bell +750
William Byron +850
Chase Elliott +1300
Denny Hamlin +1300
Ross Chastain +1900
Joey Logano +1900
Kyle Busch +2200
Alex Bowman +3000
Chase Briscoe +3000
Josh Berry +3100
Austin Cindric +4800
Brad Keselowski +4800
Carson Hocevar +4800
Chris Buescher +4800
Bubba Wallace +4800
Ty Gibbs +5500
Daniel Suarez +5500
AJ Allmendinger +6500
Ryan Preece +7000
Michael McDowell +13000
Noah Gragson +15000
Austin Dillion +15000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +15000
Shane Van Gisbergen +21000
Justin Haley +28000
Zane Smith +28000
Erik Jones +28000
John Hunter Nemechek +34000
Todd Gilliland +39000
Cole Custer +45000
Riley Herbst +45000
Ty Dillion +50000
Cody Ware +50000
JJ Yeley +50000
NASCAR Picks: Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway Odds and Best Bets
AJ Allmendinger Over Carson Hocevar (+115)
This is an interesting matchup. Hocevar is the massive favorite in this one at (-160) on his side. That baffles me a bit. I get it, Hocevar is a young fiery kid who’s a big story right now. Allmendinger is a bit of a boring veteran who isn’t flashy outside of road courses. Hocevar finished ninth in his only start here last year, but Allmendinger has loved this track. He’s the only driver in the Cup Series who has finished in the top 10 in all three NetGen races at the track.
When this crafty veteran has a track he’s good at, he seems to keep scoring good victories there. He finished eighth last year, fifth in 2023, and third in 2022. Even in the old car with both Richard Petty Motorsports and Gillette Evernham Racing Allmendinger scored three top-11 finishes in his first three career starts here. His record at this track in addition to the lopsided odds on this one have me on Allmendinger.
Alex Bowman Top 10 (+125)
Alex Bowman is an almost weekly top-10 bet for me. He finished seventh in the fall race here and has been top 10 in three of the last five races at Homestead-Miami. In four of the five races in 2025, you guessed it. Bowman has scored a top-10 finish. In six straight 1.5-mile tracks, Alex Bowman has finished in the top 10. He’s rarely the fastest car, but he’s always in the mix at the end of the day for that top-10 finish.
Noah Gragson Top 10 (+400)
Gragson is a driver I have my eye on big time this week. I’ve even taken a small bet on him to win at 150/1. His two starts here in the Cup Series haven’t been great, but neither were the situations for either start. In the Xfinity Series however, Gragson has been great here.
Gragson has a win and four top-five finishes in five races. The one he didn’t, he was wrecked while leading the race by lap down David Starr. If Gragson can take his Xfinity prowess here and combine it with the great run he was having last week before a blown tire late ruined his day, he’s a strong top-10 bet at this price.
William Byron to Win (+850)
The last time the Homestead-Miami race was held in the spring back in 2021, William Byron was the winner. He finished sixth here in the fall and had the second-fastest car last week in Las Vegas. Byron always finds his way to the front of the field and is in contention to win. The Daytona 500 winner has finished in the top six in the last six 1.5 & 2-mile comparison tracks.
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