When the 2025 NCAA March Madness bracket dropped, people run to their computer to fill out a bracket. While we love a good bracket prediction, we’ve taken the exercise in a different direction. Forget matchups, forget resumes – we’re here to tell you who the best teams in the country are at the moment. And we’ve broken them all down into five neat tiers to make it easier to digest.
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Ranking March Madness Teams 1-68
Tier 1 – The Title Challengers
1 – Auburn
2 – Duke
3 – Houston
4 – Tennessee
5 – Florida
If you look at the past 25 tournaments, there is a pretty obvious trend in terms of winners. 72% of the winners in that span have come from the #1-line and only two of them have had a number larger than #3 (both UConn). So when narrowing down the real contenders here, we have to stick to the very highest ranked teams.
In terms of differentiating them, Duke would 100% be the number one team if we could be sure that Cooper Flagg was healthy. While we know that the looks primed to play in March, we don’t really know what that means. He could be a banged up version of himself and as a result, we bumped them down slightly.
Joining the #1-seeds in the title challenger tier is Tennessee. The Volunteers have all the makings of a title team. Since the 2002 NCAA tournament, every champion has had at least a 40 offensive officiency ranking on KenPom and at least a 25 rating on defense. Tennessee ranks 18th and 3rd respectively in those two metric, putting them right in the thick of things. And that ranking really might undersell just how good this defense is. If defense wins championships, as the adage goes, they should not be overlooked.
Tier 2 – Could Surprise Us
6 – St. John’s
7 – Alabama
8 – Wisconsin
9 – Iowa St.
10 – Maryland
11 – Michigan St.
12 – Arizona
13 – Kentucky
If we want to stick with those KenPom criteria, there are plenty of teams in this next tier that qualify, but maybe haven’t showed out the way we would want them to.
Maryland, Michigan St. and Iowa St. have all stood out on the defensive side of the ball. They all rank within the top seven teams in terms of the defensive metrics that we look for. However, I just don’t love their ability to score the rock enough to make them a legitimate threat to win the title.
The same could be said of Wisconsin, but in the other direction. Their shooting seems unreal, especially when you consider that they play in the Big Ten. However, I’m not sure their defense will be able to hold up if their shooting goes cold at any point.
Tier 3 – Sweet 16 Hopefuls
14 – Texas A&M
15 – Purdue
16 – Clemson
17 – Texas Tech
18 – BYU
19 – UCLA
20 – Ole Miss
21 – Missouri
Maybe of these teams don’t hit all the KenPom ratings on both sides of the ball, but have an elite single side. BYU and Purdue are great examples of this. Both teams rank way up when it comes to the offensive metrics. Purdue comes in at 7th in offensive, while BYU ranks 11th. They both feel like they could shoot with the very best teams in the nation, but their defensive rankings come in in the 60s. That fact means one cool day shooting could ruin their NCAA March Madness run.
The flip side of those things would be the defense of Texas A&M – who is phenomenal on defense, but is not really shooting anyone’s lights out.
Tier 4 – Sweet 16 Longshots
22 – Kansas
23 – Oregon
24 – Illinois
25 – Memphis
26 – Michigan
27 – Marquette
28 – Louisville
29 – Gonzaga
30 – San Diego St.
31 – St. Marys
32 – Utah St.
33 – Georgia
34 – Creighton
35 – Oklahoma
36 – UConn
37 – Baylor
38 – UC San Diego
This is where the list starts to get really big and we start to run into big flaws. Take Gonzaga, for instance. They are a team that has a lot of weapons on offense and it seems like they have a different high scorer every game. However, they lack having that guy who will take over the game when they really need the push. Perhaps the closest person they have to that is Ryan Nembhard, who does so more with his passing that with his scoring. If people aren’t on the other end of those passes knocking down the shots, then they might not be able to dig out of a hole.
UConn has the opposite problem – they have a slew of playmakers. Liam McNeeley, Alex Karaban, and Solo Ball – they all are averaging over 14 points per game. However, they all have the chance to put up a dud. McNeeley just score 4 against Seton Hall a week ago and Karaban was just held to 6 against Creighton. If more than one goes cold at a time, they will have a short tournament.
Tier 5 – Who Knows
39 – Mississippi St.
40 – Vanderbilt
41 – Texas
42 – Arkansas
43 – Colorado St.
44 – VCU
45 – New Mexico
46 – McNeese
I mean, the title says it all doesn’t it? Who knows about these teams? They all have question marks that make me wonder if they really belong a serious consideration or if they just had short, bright spots on the year. I could see one of these teams surprising us with a win or two. I could also see each of them getting smoked early.
Tier 6 – Crazier Things Have Happened
47 – Liberty
48 – North Carolia
49 – Drake
50 – Yale
51 – Hiugh Point
52 – Grand Canyon
53 – Xavier
54 – Akron
55 – Troy
To be honest, I wanted to break this teir down into another grouping made up strictly of Xavier and North Carolina. The grouping was going to be called ‘how did I get here?’. I think we’ve harped enough on the fact that the NCAA March Madness selection committee botched the selection and put them in.
Those two teams are joined by a number of mid-major squads that have shown bright moments during this season, but maybe haven’t shown the ability to keep that up all year. Take Drake for instance. They came out of the gate hard, beating both Miami and Vanderbilt by double figures. Despite that early success, we saw back-to-back losses to UIC and Murray St.. As a result, these teams just haven’t shown the stability to trust.
Tier 7 – Just Happy to Be Here
56 – Wofford
57 – UNC Wilmington
58 – Montana
59 – Lipscomb
60 – Robert Morris
61 – SIU Edwardsville
62 – Omaha
63 – American
64 – Bryant
65 – Norfolk St.
66 – Mount St. Mary’s
67 – Alabama St.
68 – St. Francis
There’s not much to say here. This grouping are all small conference winners that are unlikely to see more than a single game’s worth of action. I’d like to give a special shoutout to two teams thought. Firstly, to St. Francis, who is the only team in the tournament with a losing record. Also, a special shout to SIU Edwardsville, who are dancing for the first time.
If you’d like even more info to help filling out your 2025 NCAA March Madness bracket, check out the College Experience. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
