The non-conference schedule? Over since December. The conference regular season? Over since February. Conference tournaments? They all ended yesterday. All that we have left is 2025 NCAA March Madness. The good news is that we have three more weekends of college hoops. The bad news is that we only have three more weekends of college hoops.
The team at SGPN is going through every first round match up for the entire 2025 NCAA March Madness tournament. The Midwest Region has a clear favorite that should be there when the dust settles, but we have a ton of dust that we need to get through first. This quadrant could be the most predictable AND the most volatile. The top seed is a solid play to make it through to the Final Four. However, the rest of the bracket is likely to go thermonuclear.
Let’s dig into the plays for the 2025 NCAA March Madness Bracket Midwest Region. There’s some solid value here, especially as we get further down the bracket. Make sure to shop around the different books to find the absolute best odds, and remember to let it ride!
2025 NCAA March Madness Bracket Midwest Region Best Bets & Predictions
It’s important to remember that filling out a bracket and betting the first round of 2025 NCAA March Madness require different approaches. We’re not looking for the team most likely to advance. We’re looking for the team most likely to cover the spread.
(1) Houston vs. (16) SIU-Edwardsville
The Houston Cougars enter the tournament with a roster that has a ton of experience together and is on a revenge tour. Last year, they were bounced by Duke in the Sweet Sixteen after point guard Jamal Shead suffered an ankle injury.
There will be upsets in the first round. Top seeds will go home early. However, the Houston Cougars won’t be among them. This team is too athletic, experienced and well-coached to let SIU-Edwardsville surprised them in the first round. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and comes with high-level guard play and quality big men. Houston clamps SIU-Edwardsville and wins by 30.
Pick: Houston -28
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Georgia
This must be a typo. Gonzaga an eight-seed? There’s no way that’s right. It is right. This is the weakest Gonzaga roster in the last 12 years. Depth and lapses on defense were both challenges this year. Gonzaga went 6-7 ATS in their non-conference schedule and 4-5 ATS in neutral site games.
The Georgia Bulldogs stepped up in year three of head coach Mike White. They survived a brutal SEC to make the tournament and draw a capable Gonzaga team. Georgia is a solid defensive team, but lack elite guard play and struggle at the free throw line. They’re also 6-8 ATS as an underdog.
We have two teams that are mediocre against the spread. When that occurs, just hold your nose and take the points.
Pick: Georgia +6.5
(5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeese
Clemson brought back a solid roster, minus star power forward PJ Hall. Losing Hall opened up their offense and actually invigorated the team. Clemson uses center Viktor Lahkin as their rim protector, but they don’t rely on him as much on offense. Clemson is solid across the board but has a really talented, veteran frontcourt.
The Tigers went 5-6 ATS in non-conference games and went 2-2 ATS in neutral site games, but they were 17-11 ATS as a favorite.
McNeese is one of the more fun mid-major programs in the tournament, and the Cowboys have a coach who is clearly auditioning for a bigger job. McNeese lacks size but can get out and run with anyone. They may struggle with Clemson’s big men, but Clemson should struggle with their pace.
McNeese is 2-0 ATS in neutral site games and 2-0 ATS as an Underdog.
Pick: Clemson -7.5
(4) Purdue vs. (13) High Point
Purdue was Purdue when they played at Mackey Arena but struggled everywhere else. The Boilermakers went 8-9 when they played as an away team or at a neutral site this year. They also went 1-5 ATS at neutral site games and 6-5 ATS as a road team. Purdue lacks depth and struggled to defend the paint this year.
High Point often plays 11 or 12 players, so depth is actually a strength, and they have a lot of bigs they can throw at Purdue. The Panthers are also capable of tossing it down low and getting buckets, and they can also shoot from distance. Offensively, High Point is a terrible match up for the Purdue defense. Consider a sprinkle on the High Point money line.
Pick: High Point +8.5
(6) Illinois vs. (11) Texas / Xavier
The Fighting Illini spent most of the 2024-25 season banged up and trying to hang on in the Big Ten. They earned a tournament bid, so the year was a success, but they’re likely to go home early. Illinois struggled defensively all year and allowed opponents to average 74.6 points per game. They also lack veteran guard play and have a young-ish overall roster.
The Illini will face the winner of the Texas vs. Xavier play-in game, and the side you’ll want to take is the winner of the play-in. Illinois went 6-5 ATS in non-conference games and 6-10 ATS in away and neutral site games. Look to fade Illinois ,whether they draw Texas or Xavier.
Pick: Texas or Xavier
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Troy
The last time we saw Kentucky in the NCAA tournament, they got bounced by a mid-major. Also, the last time we saw their first-year coach, Mark Pope, in the NCAA tournament, he got bounced by a mid-major. Kentucky turned over most of its roster from last season, but a lot of the issues still linger.
This Kentucky team can light it up offensively but are just as likely to give it back defensively. The Wildcats also struggle with scoring on the inside and rebounding. Kentucky went 6-9 ATS in games on the road or at a neutral site. They also went 6-7 ATS in non-conference games.
Troy can play defense and is capable of rebounding and scoring on the inside. The Trojans have capable, veteran guards, but they’re terrible at shooting from distance. If they get down big, don’t expect a barrage of three-pointers for a comeback. The Trojans don’t have the shooters.
Troy went 4-3 ATS as an underdog, 3-0 ATS at neutral site games, and 7-4 ATS in their non-conference slate.
Pick: Troy +10.5
(7) UCLA vs. (10) Utah State
UCLA got called out by their coach and managed to turn their season around. This version of the Bruins is super young. They only have three seniors, and only one starts. UCLA is nasty on defense but inconsistent on offense. They lack a true go-to scorer and don’t make free throws. The Bruins went 8-3 ATS in their non-conference slate and 14-9-1 ATS as a favorite.
Utah State returns a lot from a team that got bounced in the second round last year. The Aggies play defense, can shoot from deep, and have size and athleticism on the inside.
Utah State went 5-3 ATS as an underdog and 6-4 ATS in their non-conference slate.
Pick: Utah State +4.5
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Wofford
Tennessee is one of two teams in this quadrant that takes these first-round games personally. The Volunteers and Houston Cougars go out of their way to wreck inferior opponents. That’s the exact spot Tennessee finds themselves in.
Wofford is rated as the 11th worst team to make the tournament, according to KenPom. The Terriers have an experienced roster, but they lack athleticism and struggle defensively.
The Volunteers went 9-4 ATS in their non-conference schedule. Wofford lost by 51 points to Duke back in November. This game should go about as well for the Terriers. Tennessee in this first-round match up. Rick Barnes led teams have struggled in the tournament, but he’s made it out of the first round in every year he’s taken the Vols to the tournament.
Pick: Tennessee -19.5
Who goes to the Sweet 16?
Houston should make it out of the top quadrant in the Midwest Region. That’s about as close to a lock for the Sweet 16 as there is.
After Houston? Expect this bracket to turn into chaos. McNeese and High Point could pick off Clemson and Purdue. Let’s pencil in Clemson to make it out of the next quadrant, but it’s not a guarantee.
Below Clemson quadrant, Kentucky is the highest-seeded team, and they might not get past Troy. Let’s go with Xavier to make it through the play-in game, beat Illinois, and the winner of the Kentucky vs. Troy match up to make it to the Sweet 16.
In the bottom quadrant of the Midwest Region, Tennessee should have no trouble getting past Wofford in the first round and should beat Utah State in the second round. Pencil the Volunteers in for a Sweet 16 run.
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every college basketball game for all the 2025 tournaments, make sure you tune into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
