Duke is being labeled as an “all-time great” team. However the Blue Devils are entering the 2025 NCAA Tournament East Region with their star, Cooper Flagg, not 100% healthy. What teams in this quadrant of the bracket are good enough to contend with Duke? Let’s go through each first round game in the East Region with March Madness analysis and best bets.
2025 NCAA Tournament East Region Best Bets & Predictions
Play-In Game: (16) American vs (16) MOunt St. Mary’s
Betting Odds: American -2.5, Total 131.5
This is my favorite look in the First Four. Mount St. Mary’s had a very “2024-Wagner-like” run in March. A middle seeded team in their conference tournament that strung a lot of wins together while under-manned. Three important contributors for The Mount have missed time lately, Carmelo Pacheco, Terrell Ard, and Abdou Khadre Kebe.
American starts four Seniors and swept both the Patriot League regular season and tournament titles. The Eagles operate at one of the slowest paces in the country and have two star forwards. 6-foot-9 Matt Rogers averages 17 PPG and 6-foot-6 Greg Jones shot 45.1% from deep (41-91).
Best Bet: American -2.5
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Baylor
Betting Odds: Baylor -1, Total 143.5
The first game of the Friday 2025 NCAA Tournament slate should be an interesting matchup of styles. Top 50 tempo team vs a bottom 50 tempo team.
Chris-Jans-coached teams are typically physical and play very stout defense. This season the team has a very different identity, Mississippi State likes to run and is a Top 25 offense via KenPom. Josh Hubbard is the star of the show (18.7 PPG) but the Bulldogs back end has dipped in quality.
Where MSU has the matchup advantage is in the paint. Baylor’s big man Josh Ojianwuna suffered a season ending injury. Norchad Omier slid into Ojianwuna’s spot in the lineup. The star forward is a stud offensively but a turnstile defensively. Look for the Bulldogs’ guards to get downhill and F Keshawn Murphy to hold his own against Omier.
Best Bet: OVER 143.5 Mississippi State/Baylor
(5) Oregon vs. (12) Liberty
Betting Odds: Oregon -6.5, Total 140.5
It is time for the way too cute 12 vs 5 game. Oregon vs Liberty is Friday night’s final game to tip off and will take place in Seattle, Washington. That is a brutal travel spot and time zone change for the Flames who hail from Lynchburg, Oregon.
Ducks’ Head Coach Dana Altman is an excellent in tournament settings. Altman has a 17-6-1 ATS record in the NCAA Tournament during his career.
Jackson Shelstad is a guard that excels for the Ducks in the spotlight. 7-footer Nate Bittle has been healthy all season and is Oregon’s leading scorer and rebounder. Liberty doesn’t have anybody that can match that.
Best Bet: Oregon -6.5
(4) Arizona vs. (13) Akron
Betting Odds: Arizona -13.5, Total 167.5
If you love high scoring matchups these two squads are going to deliver an entertaining game for you. The catalyst couldn’t be anybody other than Caleb Love. The former North Carolina guard remains one of the most polarizing household names. This season he is averaging 16.6/4.2/3.5 but the bottom line is that he can either shoot the Wildcats into the game or out of the game.
Arizona’s strengths are their great depth and their tenacity on the offensive glass. The good news for the Zips is that they can counter the Wildcats’ strengths with their roster that is full of high major transfers that rebound well. Akron’s Nate Johnson and Tavari Johnson are a fun guard duo to watch.
Best Bet: OVER 167.5 Arizona/Akron
(6) BYU vs. (11) VCU
Betting Odds: BYU -2.5, Total 144.5
One of the hottest coaching carousel names throughout this season has been VCU’s Ryan Odom. Lately we have seen these type of coaches lose early in the NCAA Tournament because of distractions off the court. Add in a disadvantage at elevation playing in Denver, Colorado against a team from Provo, Utah. The Rams season could end earlier than some expect.
BYU finished the season as one of the hottest teams in the country winning nine straight games until a blowout loss to Houston, the eventual Big 12 Tournament. During his first year at BYU, Kevin Young’s offense currently ranks 11th in offensive adjusted efficiency on KenPom. Six Cougars have made over 30 3-pointers this season. BYU slots 33rd nationally with a 37.1% from behind the arc.
Best Bet: BYU -2.5
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Montana
Betting Odds: Wisconsin -16.5, Total 149.5
Both times Montana took a step up in competition during their non-conference schedule they got smoked. 31-point loss to Oregon and a 35-point loss to Tennessee. Wisconsin has a top 20 offense and the Grizzlies’ defense ranks 250th on KenPom. It seems like Montana’s best hope to keep this matchup close is to hope the Badgers have some dead legs at elevation after three games in three gays during the Big Ten Tournament.
Coach Greg Gard completely revamped the Wisconsin Basketball program with a more offensive centric approach. Gard added John Tonje in the Transfer Portal and Tonje has not disappointed. Tonje is putting up almost 20 PPG alongside is backcourt mate John Blackwell (15.4 PPG). The Badgers still play great defense and they are the best team in the country at the charity stripe (82.8%).
Best Bet: Wisconsin -16.5
(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Vanderbilt
Betting Odds: Saint Mary’s -4.5, Total 136.5
In 7 of the 11 NCAA Tournament appearances under Randy Bennett Saint Mary’s has been eliminated in the first round. Only once have the Gaels reached the Sweet 16 under Bennett. This season SMC plays at the 5th slowest tempo in the country.
One of the achilles heels of Saint Mary’s teams each season is their lack of athleticism. Vanderbilt has plenty of lengthy, switchable, ballhandling guards that could give the Gaels problems. The Commodores head coach Mark Byington also pulled off a first round upset last season with James Madison over Wisconsin.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt +4.5
(2) Alabama vs. (15) Robert Morris
Betting Odds: Alabama -22.5, Total 166.5
Robert Morris has less than an hour bus trip to Cleveland for this matchup. Could the Horizon League be competitive with the SEC for a second straight year? The Colonials have Alvaro Folgueiras a 6-foot-9 Spaniard who averaged almost a double-double and was named Conference Player of the Year. Also Kam Woods is an NC State transfer that was on the Final Four team a season ago.
The only issue is that RMU’s defense is a disaster and they are going to face a Top 5 offense according to KenPom. Grant Nelson’s status is up in the air but the Crimson Tide’s tournament experience should come in handy. Alabama’s guard trio of Mark Sears, Labaron Philon, and Aden Holloway will be buzzing and might aid Bama to a triple digit score.
Best Bet: OVER 166.5 Alabama/Robert Morris
2025 NCAA Tournament East Region Predictions
After an examination of the entire bracket the East Region looks like the weakest quadrant and a lot of chalk could hold. Duke should be able to waltz to the Final Four with their extremely strong defense and Freshman studs.
The biggest threat to a Blue Devils Elite Eight appearance would be Oregon (+250 Sweet 16, +1300 Elite Eight). Alabama should be the team that meets the Blue Devils in the Regional final (+120 Elite Eight). BYU is the dark horse Elite Eight contender (+425 Elite Eight).
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