Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for January 11. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for January 11.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – January 11
Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns
Tipoff – 5:00 pm EST
Footprint Center – Phoenix, AZ
Broadcast – NBA TV
With the abbreviated slate for Saturday, there aren’t too many games with solid numbers. One of the few that I really like it the visiting squad in the early evening game to score first. If you look at the data for first buckets, the Suns actually outpace the Jazz in terms of scoring first by 11.1%. However, a large chunk of those games involve Jusuf Nurkic on the tip. Since his suspension, he hasn’t been in the starting lineup, and he didn’t even play on Thursday. That leaves Mason Plumlee and his 25.0% tip win percentage at the helm. That should give the Jazz a clear advantage on the tip and with tip winners getting 64.9% of the first buckets this year, we’ll try our luck with Utah.
If you look at the last two games for the Jazz, the same three guys are featured in the first three shots – Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton and Johnny Juzang. Any of those three would be reasonable picks for Saturday’s action. However, if you peel it back, only one of them has been getting consistent early game looks for the last few weeks. While Markkanen and Juzang’s streak of early shots ends at two, Sexton’s continues on to the last six games. With that many early shots, I like his chances to get on the board first here.
First Scorer Bet for January 11: Collin Sexton (+500)
Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Moda Center – Portland, OR
Broadcast – NBA TV
Neither of these two teams are particularly good at snagging the first bucket. Not only are both below average, but they both fall in the bottom third of the league. However, there are still a couple of differences here. Firstly, the Heat still have a way better finishing rate. They have scored first 12.0% of the time. Additionally, they are far better on the tip wins. The Blazers are in the bottom third of the NBA in that stat as well (46.0%), whereas the Heat rank in the top five of the league (72.2%). Bam Adebayo should get the Heat the first possession here and put them in a great position to score first.
I know that he scored first on Friday night, but I’m doubling down on Jamie Jaquez Jr. With Jimmy Butler out and seemingly out of the picture, he’s assumed much of the beginning of the game action. He obviously took and made the first shot on Friday, but he also took one of the first three shots in the game before. Plus, with six out of the last seven first scorer losses from the Blazers going to opposing guards, I like the style matchup here too.
First Scorer Bet for January 11: Jamie Jaquez Jr. (+1000)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for January 11, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
