Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for January 4. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for January 4.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – January 4
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tipoff – 6:00 pm EST
Barclays Center – Brooklyn, NY
Broadcast – NBA TV
On Saturday, the visitors will roll into Brooklyn with a pretty clear advantage when it comes to the early game statistics. As a team, the 76ers win the tip 22.8% more of the time than the Nets do. The Nets rank 26th in that category across the league, and with the tip winners getting 65.8% of the first buckets this year, that’s already probably enough to grab a pick from the 76ers. However, there is even more to like. Joel Embiid is listed as questionable for the game, which could leave Andre Dummond in charge of the tip. He wins the tip 14.3% more often than even Embiid, which would add a nice boost to our odds here.
If you look at the game log for the last three games, there are two names that dominate the landscape. Of those 9 early shots, 77.8% of them are taken by either Paul George or Tyrese Maxley. Unsurprisingly, they have two of the lowest odds here and are exactly the same as each other. The tiebreaker for me is that George sees an uptick in early action when Joel Embiid misses a game. If he is a surprise late scratch again, it’d give us another advantage here.
First Scorer Bet for January 4: Paul George (+500)
Phoenix Suns vs. Indiana Pacers
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Gainbridge Fieldhouse – Indianapolis, IN
Broadcast – NBA TV
Another game where it would seem like there’s a big advantage for the visitor is in Indiana on Saturday. The Suns rank 4th in the NBA in tipoff wins, which is even more significant when you consider where the Pacers fall. They currently rest in the bottom third of the league, 23.1% behind Phoenix. However, that doesn’t take into account the loss of Jusuf Nurkic, who is not available on Saturday. Mason Plumlee will likely jump for the Suns, who has won only a quarter of his tips. That puts him at 20.5% behind Myles Turner. As a result, we’ll grab someone from the home squad in a surpise.
The spread for the Pacers is pretty impressive when it comes to first bucket players. Every member of the starting five has at least two first scores and nobody has more than four. However, it we’re looking at the recent play-by-play log, it’s been Andrew Nembhard getting much of the action. He took the first shot in the last game and the second shot in the game before that. Even if you want to peel it back a touch more, he took one of the first five in the two game prior.
First Scorer Bet for January 4: Andrew Nembhard (+650)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for January 4, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
