Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for January 2. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for January 2.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – January 2
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, WI
Broadcast – NBA TV
There are a lot of games on Thursday night that have really tight data regarding the first bucket. This one is one of the few where the advantages stand out pretty clearly.
The Bucks enter the game one of the very best teams on the tipoff. They rank 6th overall with a 62.5% win rate. That is double the win rate of the 26th ranked Nets. With the tip rinner getting 66.1% of the first buckets this year, that should be enough already. However, they also have an 18.8% lead when it comes to finishing those possessions, which definitely leads us to a pick with Milwaukee.
If you dig through the play-by-play data for the Bucks, the answers aren’t immediately clear for who to back. Days off have kept people’s recent logs from looking all too sharp and leaving us searching for a hot hand. Damian Lillard may be the answer to that problem. He is the only person who appears in the first three shots of their last two games. He’s also taken one of the first three shots in each of the last four games he’s appeared in.
First Scorer Bet for January 2: Damian Lillard (+650)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, OK
Broadcast – NBA TV
This is one of those aforementioned tough ones in terms of the data, but is clear enough to get a pick out of it. Both teams are right around league average in all the major metric. However, the Clippers are 6.1% ahead of the Thunder in terms of tip wins, and 6.0% in terms of first buckets. When you also include that the Thunder have seen their numbers go down since the injury to Chet Holmgren, it makes it even easier to back the Clippers here.
If you look at the last four shot logs for the Clippers, the data all looks the same. The last three games have seen Ivica Zubac, Norman Powell, and Kris Dunn all take one of the first three shots. The game prior saw Zubac take two of the first three, but Powell took the other and Dunn took the fourth. To separate these three, we’ll look to the types of guys the Thunder are giving up first buckets to. Three of the last four have been either shooting guards or small forwards with an ability to score from the outside. If we rule Zubac out of there, we can choose between the other two. One has twice the going odds of the other, so I’ll back the longshot here.
First Scorer Bet for January 2: Kris Dunn (+1400)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for January 2, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
