Get ready for Week 6 of the NFL season with the best totals picks around! Why would you just lock yourself into spread and moneyline bets to beat up on corporate gambling? Overs and unders are one of the best ways to attack NFL lines week in and week out, and Week 6 will be no different. We’ve been on a heater picking NFL lines this season at SGPN, so what are you waiting for? Tail our picks and lets take down the big books of corporate gambling by Letting it Ride.
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NFL Week 6 Totals: Best Bets for Overs and Unders in Every Game
So why the hell should you read this column? You are already subscribed to SGP on multiple platforms, so listen when you have time. But why aren’t you listening every week to Sean and Kramer deliver their white-hot takes and picks?!? And I’m tired of leaving this epic totals run that I have been on just living on the NFL Picks page, it’s Week 6 and we need to get you in on the Overs and Unders that I’m smashing every week.
📈 Top 10 Totals Experts for NFL 2024-25 Season:https://t.co/9cvqTN6DNi pic.twitter.com/7CPPyWyPhO
— Tallysight (@tallysight) October 9, 2024
So here it is, we are picking every single over and under for Week 6 of the NFL season because we don’t sell picks here at SGPN, we make them!
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS/CHICAGO BEARS UNDER 44.5
Both of these teams stepped out and stepped up last week. Prior to last week, neither the Jags nor the Bears had scored more than 30 points in a week, and they both delivered in a big way in must-win games.
However, now they both have to jump on a plane and head to England to play at Tottenham Stadium. England games are always wonky and weird things happen. Sending two teams who just found their footing across the pond is a recipe for disaster.
Trevor Lawrence has looked underwhelming for Jacksonville all season, and many fans are most likely questioning why the Jags wasted a pick on him. There have been moments of brilliance but a blow-up with Gabe Davis. All is not well in Duvall right now.
On the other side of the field, wunderkind Caleb Williams is trying to make people forget about the season Jayden Daniels is having in Washington and make Bears fans into believers. Right now, though, the Bears’ passing offense has as many 300-yard games as they do sub-100-yard games. It’s not good for someone we have heard hyped to be the second coming.
Both offenses will struggle across the pond this weekend, so smash the under and start your Week 6 totals bets off with a win, taking an early under.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS/NEW ORLEANS SAINTS UNDER 41.5
New Orleans got out to a hot start this season, but an injury to Derek Carr will hurt an already flagging offense. After back-to-back 40-point weeks, the Saints have only broken 20 once in the last three weeks. Not a good sign if you wanted to add this to the overs pile in NFL Week 6.
With Derek Carr out, Spencer Rattler will get his first professional start. Sure, Phil’s Law (more on that later) says he should be okay and able to move the ball. There’s one thing holding him back: Rattler isn’t good. The Saints took a late flier on him and never really expected him to play. They were fully committed to Carr this year.
Across the field, Baker Mayfield continues to rip the hearts and souls out of Browns fans everywhere with his effective quarterbacking in Tampa. The Bucs have scored 30+ three times this season and could do it again.
New Orleans has been stingy on defense, only allowing 20+ points twice this season to the Falcons and Chiefs. Up against an effective but not explosive Bucs’ offense, this feels like another Under. We’re stacking up unders as we build our NFL totals card for Week 6.
ARIZONA CARDINALS/GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 47.5
The Under Train is full steam ahead this weekend! Sure, Green Bay has had some big point weeks, but their defense has been less than stellar against competent offenses. Arizona has had flashes, and they should be able to hang some points on the board.
The Packers have been trying to find their rhythm since Jordan Love returned from injury. They did score 29 against the Vikings two weeks ago, but that was after Minnesota jumped out to an early lead. Despite that showing, the Packers have been a run-first offense this season, and Arizona has been the same.
With two run-first offenses going at it, this feels like a spot ripe for taking the under. Sure, this is a lot of unders this week, but offense has been down around the NFL so adjust your totals bets.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS/TENNESSEE TITANS OVER 43.0
We are banking on Anthony Richardson not playing this weekend. With Joe Flacco at quarterback, the Colts have looked like a completely different offense. In less than two full games, Flacco has thrown for 500+ yards while it took Richardson four games to throw for 600.
With Flacco, Indy is able to utilize their young receivers effectively and shouldn’t have a problem taking advantage of a tepid defense. The Titans are no longer the defensive force that they had been the past few years. Even playing against several mediocre offenses hasn’t been able to spare them.
On offense, Will Levis and crew have not been lighting up the scoreboard. The Titans did manage to score 31 against Miami last week, and the Colts’ defense has been less than potent. Look for Levis the Mayo Man to deliver some points this week and for Flacco to do the same. It may seem like a less-than-inspiring matchup, but the over is very much in play.
CLEVELAND BROWNS/PHILADELPHIA EAGLES OVER 42.5
I am making a bold prediction for this week’s Browns game. Deshaun Watson finally gets benched. This Cleveland team was competent last year with Joe Flacco under center, and they have looked abysmal with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. The Browns have not crossed the 20-point threshold this season, and the Eagles haven’t in the past two weeks, though.
With that being said, a quarterback change could be just what the doctor ordered for Cleveland. With the total at 42.5, an over is in play. Each team scores at least 22 points, and we are cashing this one in. The Eagles should be able to get to 30 which means we now just need 13 from Cleveland. A number Watson can get them to, and Winston can certainly clear it easily.
On the Philadelphia side of things, AJ Brown will be back on the field, which should spark things offensively for Philly. Jalen Hurts has looked off and not like himself lately, but lacking his top receiving target has had him looking out of sorts. Now with Brown back in the fold, the Eagles should be able to spark some offense.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS/HOUSTON TEXANS UNDER 38.0
Looking at this game has to have the Chowder Heads in Boston and New England nervous. Drake Maye is about to go out against a tough Texans defense that just got through knocking around Josh Allen.
Sure, the Texans defense isn’t world beaters, but they were and are certainly capable of containing the passing game. The Patriots have had an anemic offense, only breaking 300 offensive yards once, and that includes a game with 61 passing yards. They have only scored 20+ points once as well.
Sure, there might be some hope that the big kid from Carolina can turn things around and give Pats fans hope but don’t count on it. Maye has the physical tools to make plays, but on an offense devoid of talent, don’t look for that to happen.
If New England can sniff double digits, that means you still have about 25 points for Houston to play with. With Nico Collins on IR, this offense will look different. They were unable to carve up a Bills offense missing three starters, and that should be concerning to the Texan-in-Chief, Munaf, and the rest of Texan Nation.
Take the under 38 in this one and stay on the Under until it gets below 35.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS/BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 51.5
Over the past three weeks, the Ravens and Commanders have averaged a combined 36.3 points per game. That includes both teams getting into shootouts with the Cincinnati Bengals.
The thing that might give you pause here is the old Rule of Phil. For those who don’t know, ole’ Phil Pelletier (my dad) has a rule that you can’t tell if a quarterback is good until about Game 6. After five games, the defense has a good bit of film on him, and any competent coaching staff can undo any gimmicks. The Ravens are one of the best-coached teams in football, and Phil would agree with that, too.
However, this Washington team has been dangerous the past two seasons with utterly incompetent coaching and quarterback play. Now, with a dynamic rookie in the fold, they are bringing hope back to the DMV. Even if Baltimore manages to slow down Daniels and the Commies’ offense, the Commies’ defense is unlikely to slow down Lamar and company.
Baltimore will get their 30+ points, which means, do we think that the hot shot offense led by a rookie quarterback and former offensive-guru Kliff Kingsbury hang 21? The answer is yes. Garbage time may be needed, but smash the over, kick back with a cold one, and enjoy the fireworks.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS/DENVER BRONCOS OVER 35.5
Neither of these teams has been good offensively. Los Angeles has Justin Herbert, who has no receivers and a run-first mindset. Denver has been inconsistent with Bo Nix at quarterback, but they did just put up 34 points last week.
35.5 is an anemically low number for a total. Even though both are at the bottom of the league in points scored. The Chargers are averaging 17.0 points per game, and Denver 19.2. Put those together, and you’re at 36.2 and beating this total line. From a straight points-per-game approach, we need to be all over this line.
But let’s dive a little deeper. Denver has a top-ranked defense despite all of their offensive struggles and have forced a turnover in four out five games this season and multiple turnovers in three of five. With short fields to work with, Bo Nix has been able to produce offensively and that trend is likely to continue.
Herbert has not been turning the ball over with interceptions, but he has struggled with fumbling. Herbert has had times where his accuracy has gotten away from him, and a tough Broncos coupled with recovery from an ankle sprain could have him throwing a pick or two.
There are too many factors leaning against the under in this one, so smash the over in this NFL Week 6 showdown between AFC West rivals.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS/LAS VEGAS RAIDERS UNDER 36.5
In the other insanely low total game, we are going the other way. Aidan O’Connell will be starting at quarterback for Vegas, and he will likely be missing both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Without their top two targets, this already disjointed offense will be out of sorts and incapable of putting up points. O’Connell may be the last quarterback to beat the Chiefs, but he can’t drive an offense devoid of weapons.
On the flip side, Justin Fields has had the Steelers looking good enough through the first five weeks of the season. His running ability and passing skills are better than Kenny Pickett’s and that has the Steelers sitting at 3-2 through five weeks. However, this is a team that has only scored 20+ twice and has seen two straight losses against the Colts and Cowboys.
With all that being said, two popgun offenses and defenses that can stifle an offense are a recipe for an under. We’ve had a bunch of unders bet already, but this week has some ugly matchups and some backup quarterbacks in spots we want to avoid banking on points.
ATLANTA FALCONS/CAROLINA PANTHERS UNDER 47
The magic finally ran out on the Carolina Panthers and the Andy Dalton experience. With a big win in Week 3 over Las Vegas, the Panthers have slowly and surely gotten worse offensively each week. Losing Adam Thielen has certainly not helped their offensive woes either. Our total unders picked in Week 6 of the NFL keeps climbing as quarterbacks and offenses turn into pumpkins and can’t hit lofty totals based on early results.
Atlanta has been finding their stride offensively, and they should be able to hang 30+ on a Panthers defense that seems gassed and disheartened often. Kirk Cousins has started to find his stride and connection with his young pass catchers, and that should keep going this week.
Sure, the Panthers are at home for a divisional game, so you’d think they’d get a boost from the hometown crowd, but Bank of America Stadium has been devoid of Panthers fans lately. Look for the Falcons to have no problems offensively and the Panthers to continue their offensive skid. Take the under.
DETROIT LIONS/DALLAS COWBOYS OVER 52
Now, this is the biggest number among the totals in the NFL in Week 6, but it is also one of the surest overs. With two potent offenses going head-to-head on the national stage, you better believe this one is going to go over the total.
Dallas and Detroit have both seen their offenses get slowed a little bit this season, but with dynamic receiving weapons on both offenses, look for both squads to light it up in this one. Or at least try to. Detroit is 8th in points for and 10th in points against so far this season. Dallas is 15th in points for and 22nd in points against. Even though Detroit should be able to slow down Dallas, it feels like the Cowboys can get to 24. The Lions should have no problems scoring and can clear 30+ easily, which clears the total quickly.
CeeDee Lamb is off to a solid start and should be ready to put up big numbers against the Lions. Trust that the Cowboys will score, even if it’s in garbage time, and trust the Lions to keep rolling as they set up a date with playoff destiny again.
CINCINNATI BENGALS/NEW YORK GIANTS UNDER 48
With no Malik Nabers, the Giants were able to manufacture offense against the Seahawks last week. The 48-point line is pretty high when you consider that the Giants are heading into this week without Nabers again. Sure, they put up numbers, but this just doesn’t feel like a game we want to add to the overs card in NFL Week 6.
The Bengals offense has been rolling since Ja’Marr Chase returned and they will score points in bunches against a Giants defense that has been less than okay this season. You might think that the Giants will have another productive week offensively, but don’t count on it. The Bengals should win big, but they should keep the total under 48.
Look for the Bengals to win, but the unders train continues in NFL Week 6 without much hope for more overs as we close out the week.
BUFFALO BILLS/NEW YORK JETS UNDER 41
The Jets and Bills have played in some low-scoring rock fights over the last three years. To be exact, five of their last six meetings have failed to exceed this number. The unders have been rich for this matchup and Week 6 is a good week to take unders rather than overs on your totals bets around the NFL.
Despite the potential dead cat bounce for the New Jersey Jets after they fired Robert Saleh, but will it be enough? Aaron Rodgers is adamant that he had nothing to do with it, but how will he respond now that his buddy Nate Hackett is no longer calling plays. Sure, Todd Downing might seem like an upgrade, but nothing about the Titans’ offense over the past few years suggests that.
Josh Allen has struggled against the Jets historically under Salah, but without him calling the defense will that change? Potentially, but not this week. This week the Bills offense is decimated by injuries. With no Khalil Shakir and no James Cook, Buffalo will be searching for offensive playmakers.
Defensively, the Bills haven’t been great, but they should be able to contain an aging Aaron Rodgers who won’t throw to his best receiver. Take all those factors, and you have a perfect storm of unders rather than overs for the totals bets in Week 6 of the NFL season.
