The AFC North is shaping up to be a thrilling division for the 2024 season, with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals emerging as top contenders. Here is my 2024 AFC North betting preview!
The Ravens, led by MVP Lamar Jackson, are favorites to win the division, but the Bengals, with a healthy Joe Burrow and a talented roster, are close behind. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to bounce back from last season’s disappointments, with the Browns boasting a strong defense and the Steelers pinning their hopes on new quarterback Russell Wilson. With all four teams packed with talent and determination, this season’s AFC North will be one for the books.
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2024 AFC North NFL Betting Preview
Baltimore Ravens (O/u 10.5 wins )
The total initially opened at 11.5 wins and has now been bet down to 10.5. I’ll get in on the over now. The Ravens do have a tough schedule. It includes opening up at Arrowhead, on the road in Dallas, Houston, and LA, and they play the Eagles at home, not to mention their division rivals twice.
Lamar Jackson is coming off another MVP season. Through the air and on the ground, Lamar was 4th in offensive yards per game (5.9). Since 2019, the Ravens are 52-18 in the regular season in games that Jackson has started. But just 4-9 in 13 games, he didn’t start.
I get people not loving the Derrick Henry move, and he obviously isn’t the same running back he once was, but even in a “bad” season with a poor offensive line in Tennessee, Henry still put up great numbers. Even at this stage of his career, Derrick Henry is an upgrade for this offense. He will make defenses stack the box, which Baltimore wants you to do. Jackson finished 1st in EPA per dropback and 4th in yards per attempt (9.1) against 7+ man boxes last year.
Win Total Bet: Over 10.5 Wins
Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 10.5 Wins)
It’s chalky at -120, but I do like the over. Joe Burrow is coming back after dealing with a calf and wrist injury last season. The Bengals were 4-1 with Joe Burrow, and if he can stay healthy this year, the Bengals can make a deep run in the playoffs.
One of the biggest turnarounds year to year in terms of strength of schedule for the Bengals. They had the toughest schedule last year and in 2024 the Bengals have the 6th easiest schedule.
I’ve also come around on head coach Zac Taylor. I think he did a great job last season, especially when Burrow went down. Taylor kept the Bengals in the playoff race and finished the season with a winning record. I thought Taylor was creative with his play calling when Jake Browning was in the game and won a bunch of games when most counted the Bengals out.
Win total Bet: Over 10.5 Wins
Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 Wins)
I think it’s clear the Browns have the best defense in the division, especially last season. Their defense ranked 1st in non-sack EPA allowed. That’s the best since the 2019 New England Patriots defense. If the Browns defense was able to do that with the 27th ranked health last year, the ceiling is extremely high for 2024.
On top of losing Nick Chubb for the start of the 2024 season, the Browns offensive line was the 5th most injured unit last year. The QB position was a problem all year and this team still made the playoffs. I think we will see some positive regression in all areas.
I think top to bottom the Browns have one of the best roasters in the NFL. Outside of the 49ers and Lions, I think the Browns have the 3rd best roster in the league. If DeShawn can just be a little better, I think the Browns can be one of the best teams in the league.
Win Total Bet: Over 8.5 Wins
Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 8.5 Wins)
I hate to be that guy, but I’m going under 8.5 wins for the Steelers this season. They have the hardest schedule in the league and they’re easily the worst team in their division.
A crazy stat from last season for the Steelers was how good they were in the 4th quarter. The Steelers were outsourcing their opponents by 29 points, 5th best rate in the league. They won 4 games that they trailed going into the 4th quarter, that was 1st in the league. I don’t think that’s sustainable, we have to see some regression there.
As for their QB situation, I do think Russell Wilson will start week 1 for them and regardless of what anyone think about him, Russ is definitely an upgrade from the Steelers had last season. Personally, I didn’t think Wilson had that good of a season. He held onto the ball way too long looking to make the big play. Wilson settled for the check down too much.
Only 1 QB held on to the ball longer than 3.5 seconds (Justin Fields). Wilson throws behind the line of scrimmage a lot and his game is too boom or bust for me to have confidence in. I don’t trust their offensive line, WR room is thin and on defense their secondary is questionable.
Win Total Bet: Under 8.5 Wins
2024 AFC North Division Betting Preview Division Winner
As much as I like the Ravens and Bengals, I can’t get there with how short their odds are. +450 with the Browns is very interesting and that’s where I’ll go. I have to take the value with a Browns team that I think has the best defense in the division and top to bottom the best roster in the division.
The only thing that worries me about backing the Browns long term is the uncertainty at the QB position. If DeShawn Watson can just be a little better than what he has shown in a Browns uniform, I think the Browns will win a bunch of games and possibly make a deep run in the playoffs.
2024 AFC North Division Winner: Cleveland Browns +450
2024 AFC North Division Player Prop
I am all over Lamar Jackson and his rushing prop! It’s sitting at 675.5 rushing yards, and I’ll happily take the over on that. It all starts with OC Todd Monken and what he wants to do with Lamar and this offense. What does Lamar do well? Run the ball!
Lamar has consistently been one of the most dynamic rushing QBs since coming into the league and the way Monken designs the offense playbook goes hand in hand with Lamar’s strengths. Lamar has shown us he can surpass 1,000 rushing yards multiple times.
I know a lot of people might see a drop in Lamar’s rushing by bringing in Derrick Henry, but I think Todd Moken and this offense will use the bulk of Henry down in the red zone and goal line. I also love the first half of their schedule for Lamar and the Ravens rushing attack. In the first 10 weeks the Ravens will face just two teams inside the top 10 in rushing defense. Lamar has been over this number every year of his career. I’m not going to overthink this one.
Lamar Jackson Over 675.5 Rushing Yards
