The AFC West has been dominated by one team as of recently. The Kansas City Chiefs have owned this division and the NFL for the past couple of years. The other three teams have been making big changes to match their success levels. Will it be close and can any of them get close this year? Will Kansas City show any signs of slowing down? Let’s take a look at the AFC West betting preview and break it all down!
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AFC West Betting Preview
Kansas City Chiefs (o/u 11.5 wins)
We’ll start the AFC West betting preview with the team that has remained dominant in this division for almost a decade. The last time the Chiefs didn’t win the division was in 2015.
Patrick Mahomes has already been regarded as one of the best to play the game. He could cement that legacy by winning his third straight Super Bowl, something no quarterback has done. The Chiefs gave him even more weapons this offseason. They added Hollywood Brown in free agency. He’ll start the season injured but isn’t expected to miss much time.
They also added Xavier Worthy in the draft. These two are lightning-fast and will give defenses trouble. Especially with Andy Reid’s ability to utilize players’ talents. My guess is they’ll be streaking down the sidelines, opening big spaces for both Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice (barring suspension).
The Chiefs’ top priority in the offseason was resigning Chris Jones, their defensive tackle. They didn’t make many big free-agent moves aside from that and Brown. However, they didn’t need to. As the old saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Despite being a powerhouse and finishing as the number one seed, the Chiefs schedule has been ranked 12th easiest. They had the 15th-ranked schedule last year, just slightly harder than this year.
This team’s success will likely continue to rely on Patrick Mahomes’s health. As long as he is their starting quarterback, counting them out of any game is hard. Their defense was so good last year, and the offense should be better, so it’s hard to see them regressing.
The schedule is slightly easier, and Mahomes is out for blood after leading the 16th-scoring offense. He wants to be the first.
Win Total Bet: Over 11.5 Wins (-112 on FanDuel)
Las Vegas Raiders (o/u 6.5 wins)
While everybody likes to dog on the Raiders, they finished 8-9 last year. Just one game off a winning season. They made a coaching change mid-season and made Antonio Pierce their interim head coach. The Raiders organization did the right thing this offseason and named him head coach. A job well-earned.
The defense was stingy, led by edge-rusher Maxx Crosby. The offense hurt teams by pounding the ball. They said goodbye to Josh Jacobs, who’s been leading their backfield. However, he didn’t play the last four games of the season, and Zamir White filled his shoes very well.
White returns, along with receiver Davante Adams. Sure, Adams is getting up there in age. However, there’s no denying the fact that he’s still one of the hardest receivers to cover. The Raiders also added elite athlete Brock Bowers, out of Georgia. Bowers led Georgia in receiving each year he played there.
They’ll be catching passes from either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell. I think Minshew wins the job. He’s got a dog mentality and has a lot he wants to prove. The Raiders added to their offensive line in the draft to help protect the quarterback and continue running the ball well.
Perhaps their biggest signing this offseason was defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. For the past several years, he’s been wreaking havoc on the Dolphins’ offensive lines. He and Maxx Crosby will now form one of the best NFL defensive duos and make life tough for their opponents.
The Raiders have the eighth-hardest schedule working against them this year. However, last year, they had the fourth hardest and still managed to win eight games. The majority of these wins came after Pierce took over and changed the tone of this team. They’ll be the annoying little brother to the Chiefs that keeps close.
Win Total Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (-130 on Draft Kings)
Denver Broncos (o/u 5.5 Wins)
The Denver Broncos quickly said goodbye to the Russell Wilson experiment. He was never Sean Payton’s guy, and they’ll move forward with some quarterbacks that Payton hand-picked.
They are currently listing returning quarterback Jarrett Stidham as the starter and Zach Wilson as the backup. However, I think rookie Bo Nix will start the most games, which makes them interesting in this AFC West betting preview.
Bo Nix will be helped by his former college teammate Troy Franklin, who the Broncos also drafted. He joins a receiving corps that already includes veteran Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims. The running back room will be interesting to watch as they have once-promising Javonte Williams as well as Jaleel McLaughlin. I expect they’ll both touch the ball plenty of times.
The defense has some question marks aside from cornerback Patrick Surtain. The Broncos hope third-round draft pick Jonah Elliss can help. Sean Payton has had a lot of success in the NFL and now that he has his guy at quarterback, it’s hard to think of fading him too much.
The Broncos have the eighth-easiest schedule, which should help their rookie quarterback and young team. Sean Payton should be able to out-gameplan enough of the competition. Last year, the Broncos had the tenth-hardest schedule. Yes, they had a different quarterback at the time. However, they still managed to win eight of their games.
Win Total Bet: Over 5.5 wins (+100 on DraftKings)
Los Angeles Chargers (o/u 8.5 Wins)
Perhaps no team has changed as much as the Los Angeles Chargers have. After an injury-riddled season, the Chargers brought in former NFL coach Jim Harbaugh. They proceeded to trade Keenan Allen and cut Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. Despite putting up decent stats, Justin Herbert hasn’t thrown together enough wins to make it count. You have to wonder if he’s only got so many chances left.
He may not have such a strong statistical season with Harbuagh’s offense, which normally focuses on the run. They have a myriad of runners, including Harbaugh’s brother’s old running backs, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
They also drafted Troy standout Kimani Vidal, who could see the field given the other two’s injury history. The receiver room is a bit of a question mark with veteran Joshua Palmer and rookie Llad McConkey.
The Chargers’ defense is a bit of a mixed bag. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa can be hard for offenses to handle at times. However, both are a little older and getting banged up more often. Safety Alohi Gilman and cornerback Asanti Samuel also provide great value.
Adding the best tackle in the draft, Joe Alt will help get these started in the right direction. Harbaugh also added his Michigan linebacker, Junior Colson, who can help create big plays on defense.
The Chargers have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL, which should help them weather the changes. However, I can’t help but wonder if they are a year out from a full turnaround.
Can Harbaugh help Herbert reach the next level? Last year, they had the 14th-easiest schedule, which netted them five wins. With the top offensive weapons gone, can they win some more games due to an easier schedule?
Win Total Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (+130 on Draft Kings)
AFC West Betting Preview Division winner
Breaking down the AFC West betting preview, it feels like this division could be more competitive this year. The changes the Raiders and Broncos have made should elevate their play. Given that they each won eight games last year, that could make for an interesting wild-card team.
The Chargers have many question marks and feel like a step behind. However, Jim Harbaugh gets the most out of his players. This is a guy who has won playoff games with Colin Kaepernick as his quarterback.
Can any of these teams gain on the dominating Kansas City Chiefs? Or will the Chiefs ride on to their ninth straight division winning? They have, after all, added more weapons for Mahomes. They’ve also retained their top players on defense. It seems as if the only way the Chiefs will be dethroned currently, would be a Mahomes’ injury.
Don’t overthink this one. It’s juiced to -230 for a reason. It would take injuries or Hell freezing over for the Chiefs not to win this division this year. As Cody Zeeb, cohost of SGPN’s Nascar Gambling Podcast, says, you only pay the juice if you lose.
Division Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (-230 on Fan Duel)
AFC West Player Prop
Mahomes is continuing to work his way up the ranks in the G.O.A.T. conversation. Even after what felt like a down year, Mahomes for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns. Both were actually his lowest totals since 2019. The Chiefs have now given him two new weapons in Hollywood: Brown and Xavier Worthy.
Brown, a veteran with speed, will be playing with the best quarterback he’s had. Worthy, whose speed can rival Tyreek Hill’s, will be a fun piece for Andy Reid to move around. Add in how Rashee Rice blossomed towards the end of last year and Travis Kelce’s dominance at the tight end position, and Mahomes is set up for a lot of success.
The beat writers in Kansas City have even mentioned that the team has jokingly taken jabs at Mahomes for not throwing the ball down the field enough last year. The Raiders have a Kermit the Frog doll dressed as Mahomes at practice.
Question marks on his performance last season around mid-season came into play. Mahomes is hearing all this and I think he’s taking it all in, just to unleash on the league.
Mahomes passing touchdowns is set at an over/under of 34.5. Looking at last year’s 27 passing touchdowns, you may find yourself on the fence, wondering if he can get eight more. I don’t feel that way at all. In fact, I look back to 2022, when Mahomes had 41 touchdown passes. At that point, nobody would have taken under 34.5 the following year.
I’m not letting the slow start to last year get in the way. Mahomes threw for 50 touchdowns in 2018. He had 38 in 2020, 37 in 2021, and 41 in 2022. Mahomes is about to unleash and have a great season, and I think he’ll exceed 40 passing touchdowns again. Thankfully, you can find this under team specials on DraftKings at +500.
AFC West Player Prop: Patrick Mahomes to Throw 40+ Passing TDs in Regular Season (+500 on DraftKings)
