The NFL preseason is almost here, with the Bears and Texans facing off on Thursday, August 1st, in Canton, Ohio. That means it’s time to get those future bets in! Last year, Kevin Stefanski won his second NFL Coach of the Year award after leading Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs. Let’s look at the 2024 NFL Coach of the Year Picks, Odds, and Past Winners.
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2024 NFL Coach of the Year Picks, Odds, and Past Winners
The NFL Coach of the Year award has been handed out annually since 1957. The toughest part about predicting Coach of the Year is it’s not always given out to the best coach.
For example, Bill Belichick has only won the award three times, while Andy Reid has only won it once, all the way back in 2002 with the Philadelphia Eagles. The good part about that is it gives us a variety of odds and makes 35/1 bets like Brain Dabol in 2022 or Stefanski at 20/1 in 2023 possible to hit.
Winning Head Coaches Last 10 Years
2023 Kevin Stefanski Cleveland Browns 11-6
2022 Brian Daboll New York Giants 9-7-1
2021 Mike Vrabel Tennessee Titans 12-5
2020 Kevin Stefanski Cleveland Browns 11-5
2019 John Harbaugh Baltimore Ravens 14-2
2018 Matt Nagy Chicago Bears 12-4
2017 Sean McVay Los Angeles Rams 11-5
2016 Jason Garrett Dallas Cowboys 13-3
2015 Ron Rivera Carolina Panthers 15-1
2014 Bruce Arians Arizona Cardinals 11-5
2024 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
Matt Eberflus +800
Jim Harbaugh +800
Jonathan Gannon +1100
Matt LeFleur +1200
DeMeco Ryans +1200
Raheem Morris +1400
Dan Quinn +1500
Robert Saleh +1500
Brian Callahan +1500
Shane Steichen +1600
Dave Canales +1800
Mike Macdonald +1800
Antonio Pierce +2000
Mike Tomlin +2200
Sean McVay +2200
Zac Taylor +2500
Jerod Mayo +2500
Dan Campbell +2500
Mike McDaniel +2500
Kevin O’Connell +2500
Sean Payton +2500
Kyle Shanahan +3000
John Harbaugh +3500
Doug Pederson +4000
Dennis Allen +5000
Mike McCarthy +5000
Brain Dabol +5000
Nick Sirianni +5000
Sean McDermott +5000
Andy Reid +5500
Kevin Stefanski +6000
Todd Bowles +6000
Coach of the Year – The Favorites
Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears checks in as the favorite. There are a lot of expectations in Chicago, and that makes it hard for him to win the award. If they are good, it’s expected. They’d have to be great and battling for the #1 seed in the NFC for Eberflus to win.
It’s the same story for Jim Harbaugh, but he’ll get more attention for what he does. He’s turned every program around right away, the Chargers were a five-win team in 2023, if he can get the team to 10 wins, he’s got a shot.
Jonathan Gannon is the first one on the list that I feel has a true shot. The Cardinals come in with decent expectations at a 7.0 win total, but not huge expectations.
If Kyler coming back, with Marvin Harrison Jr as his top weapon, can lead this team to a 10-win season or more, Gannon could quickly win it. Matt LeFleur is another one who comes in with bigger expectations.
The youngest team in the league had a great season last year and then won a playoff game. It would take a 13 or 14-win season for LeFleur to win it, but the Packers may just be able to do that.
Coach of the Year – The Favorites
If DeMeco Ryans didn’t win this award last year after taking the Texans from the bottom of the league to a playoff team in his first season at the helm, it’s going to be tough for him to win it this year unless it’s a makeup vote for last year.
Raheem Morris takes over for the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons’ win total is set at 9.5 with high expectations in a wide-open division, this is another one where he’d have to exceed expectations to take the award.
Dan Quinn returns to head coaching, this time in Washington. The Commander’s win total is set at 6.5. If Quinn can come in and Jayden Daniels has a season like CJ Stroud last year, it wasn’t enough for Ryans to win the award last year, but maybe it would be enough for Quinn this season.
Speaking of having high expectations, Robert Saleh is almost in a lose-lose situation. The Jets enter the season with very high expectations. If they do well, Aaron Rodgers will get the credit. If they don’t, Saleh will likely get the blame. It’s going to be tough for him to win it unless they are battling for the number one seed.
Coach of the Year Mid-Tier 1
Brian Callahan kicks off the next tier of coaches. He enters a Tennessee team that isn’t expected to do that well this season. With a win total of just 6.5, the Titans could quickly be a surprise team. With his father, Bill Callahan, on the staff to help guide Brian, the Titans could pull off a big year and give Callahan a chance to win this. Shane Steichen is an interesting case in Indianapolis.
The Colts were good last year without Anthony Richardson, but their expectations aren’t too high. If Richardson can turn in a Jalen Hurts-type season and stay healthy, Steichen could be in play for this.
If Dave Canales can turn Bryce Young and the Panthers around, he should win this award, but is 18/1 a big enough number for that to happen? I’m not a believer. Mike Macdonald takes over in Seattle for the Seahawks.
A team that everyone is used to middling every year. Maybe if Sam Howell takes over or Geno Smith can lead them to a 10+ win season, he has a shot, but that doesn’t seem likely.
Coach of the Year Mid-Tier 2
I’m out on Antonio Pierce and the Las Vegas Raiders. Last year as an interim was great, but how many times have we seen that feel-good interim tag be taken off only to not work out? On top of that, his quarterback is going to be Gardner Minshew or Aiden O’Connell.
Mike Tomlin should probably win this award just about every season for the job he constantly does in Pittsburgh. It’s going to take a lot of wins for Tomlin to win this one.
Sean McVay decided not to hang up the headset and come back for another year as the Rams head coach. He won the award in 2017 with an 11-5 record. In this situation, you expect the team to be fairly good, so it’s going to take a magical season for the Rams for McVay to win this.
For Zac Taylor in Cincinnati, it’s a similar situation. The Bengals are expected to be good, but they have the upside to be good. If this team can lose three or fewer games and win the #1 seed with a healthy Joe Burrow at the helm, Taylor could win this award.
Coach of the Year Mid-Tier 3
Jerod Mayo has big shoes to fill in New England, but coming off a horrible season from the greatest coach to ever do it, if Drake Maye is an instant hit and the Patriots pull off a season like the Texans did last year, Mayo could win this one. Dan Campbell and the Lions come into the season with massive expectations. What they’ve done has been impressive. It would take a 1-2 loss season and the best record in the NFL for Campbell to have a shot at this.
Mike McDaniel of the Dolphins is another coach who puts up a good year every season. That makes it tough for him to get the award, as well. It’ll take an extraordinary season from the Dolphins for McDaniel to win. Kevin O’Connell faces his toughest test yet in Minnesota.
He went 13-4 in his first season (and still didn’t win the award) and then last year was a mess with Cousins and Jefferson getting hurt. If JJ McCarthy comes in and tears up the league and leads the Vikings to the playoffs in a tough division, O’Connell could be up for this award.
Sean Payton is an interesting case. The 2006 winner of the award won it in his first season as the Saints head coach. Now he’s in this rebuild in Denver, but with a win total set at 5.5, if suddenly Bo Nix is the answer and Denver turns the ship around and makes the playoffs, that could give Payton his second Coach of the Year Award.
Kyle Shanahan, good luck is about all I can say. The expectations are just too high, and he’s proven to be an elite coach. Making this a hard award for him to win.
Coach of the Year Long-Shots
John Harbaugh kicks off the long-shot section. He’s another one who delivers so much each year. It just makes it hard to win this award. If Doug Pederson didn’t win it in 2022 after saving the Urban Meyer debacle and turning the Jaguars into a nine-win team, it would be hard to see him winning it now.
Dennis Allen for the Saints is just one of the least attractive names out there. He’d have to do something really special in New Orleans to win it, and I find that hard to see happening. There are no tall expectations in Dallas for Mike McCarthy, are there? It’s another case of you’d have to blow the league away and you still might not win it.
Brian Dabol just won the award two seasons ago for taking the Giants to a 9-7-1 record. They’ve fallen back on hard times but stuck with Dabol and Daniel Jones at quarterback. If you are a Giants fan like Sports Gambling Podcast host Ryan Kramer, it’s not a bad bet if you have hope. Of the last few coaches we’ve talked about, he’s at least got a path if they can win the East and make the playoffs.
Nick Sirianni started the season 10-1 last year and then floundered at the end of the year. That puts the expectations too high for Sirianni to have a true shot at winning.
Coach of the Year Long-Shots
Sean McDermott may have one of the hottest seats in all of football this season. If the Bills can’t get it done again, he could be done. It would take a near-undefeated season for the Bills, which probably isn’t happening.
The fact that Andy Reid has only won this award once tells you all you need to know. We already know he’s the best coach in the NFL, but that’s not what this award is.
After overcoming some adversities, Kevin Stefanski has won the award twice in the last four years. Winning three times in five years truly is a long shot.
Todd Bowles brings up the rear in odds for this award, which is an interesting case. After 8-9 and 9-8 seasons, it would take a lot for him to win this award, yes, but I’m not sure he should be the longest shot at it. A strong number one or two-seed season from Tampa could get him the award.
Coach of the Year Picks
I’m spreading out the best bets with a couple of favorites, a mid-tier team, and a long shot. I’m a Cardinals believer this year and think they could be one of the surprise teams. Callahan is coming into a decent situation that could be turned around quickly, especially with Will Levis hits.
I’m leery on how good Denver will be but Sean Payton is set up right for where the number is. Everyone knows he’s a good coach, and if he can exceed expectations, the chance is there. For Dabol, none of the other long shots do it for me, and we see Stefanski win the award twice in four years. At this price, Dabol has the ability to get it done.
Jonathan Gannon +1100
Brian Callahan +1500
Sean Payton +2500
Brain Dabol +5000
