Everyone loves a DONG, and bettors love home run props. Here are four home run props (aka “Dudes Who Dong”) to play on July 26, 2024, across all MLB action.
“The have to? What the heck was I talking about?” – Chet “The Rocket” Steadman
Uh oh. We’re officially skidding. 1-4 for our last two articles. Better bail guys. Just kidding. The bounce back will be real and it starts this week.
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Four Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – July 29, 2024
Trea Turner (Philadelphia Phillies)
I admit it. When I saw Ben Lively was starting for the Guardians and looked at the 10 road dongs he’s given up, I had a Pavlovian response and drooled a bit. He’s especially bad against righties, so I naturally figured JT Realmuto would be a good choice in this game. Also, with the Trump assassination attempt and Biden out of the race, you know the catcher affectionately known as “The Cop” was going to be fired up.
But we’re not taking The Cop today. We’re taking cool ass Trea Turner. He’s probably not voting at all this year. That’s how cool he is.
Turner is mashing right now. 3 barrels over the last week and he’s slugging .480. 10 dongs in July and a wRC+ of 222. The best part is that all lively throws is fastballs and sinkers and all Trea does is send those over the wall. Just look at this chart from Outlier.Bet.
Lively is worse vs righties. Trea is better versus lefties. And you’re going to nit pick by a few tenths of a point and say Trea is “technically” better versus lefties – leave. He hits all his pitches well and has wOBAs over .360 vs the top three.
We are taking the o1.5 bases at a slightly juiced -110 (you can handle it, I promise) and his home run at +450. That’s a crazy number for a guy who has bombs in 4 of his last 6 home games. Trea is sending one into the Schuylkill River.
Trea Turner o1.5 Total Bases -110 DraftKings (to win 1U)
HR +400 FanDuel (risk .25u)
Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins)
Byron Buxton is quietly having an outstanding season batting .278 to go with 11 dongs and 48 RBIs. He would actually be doing better but his BABIP is over .300. That’s a nerd metric that quantifies luck. Here’s another nerd stat – he has a wRC+ of 134 this season and hits against righties in 8 of his last 10 games. He leads the team in hard hit percentage over the past week too with an absurd 50% of his hits registering as hard hit. Lord Byron is the man.
The Tigers’ Keider Montero probably has a bright future as a AAA starter but today, he’s going to give up dongs to the Twins. It’s fitting since Montero’s ERA is well over 6 at home where he’s given up 4 HRs in only 20 IP. He might stink. That’s really unfortunate too because my DJ partner in California is Esteban Montero (no relation) and this guy is sullying his name. He throws basically just fastballs and sliders and these are pitches that Buxton has well over .380 wOBAs against.
I mean, he’s mashing. Just look at these total bases splits.
We’re taking his total bases at -110 and his HR at +340. Short price, but we also are pretty confident that Buxton is sending one to Mars.
Byron Buxton o1.5 Total Bases -110 FanDuel (to win 1U)
HR +340 FanDuel (risk .25u)
BONUS: o4.5 Total Bases +500 FanDuel (risk .1u)
Juan Soto (New York Yankees)
There’s an Aaron Judge/Juan Soto/Sonia Sotomayor joke somewhere in this Yankees lineup but we’re not here to talk about that – we’re here to talk about how bad Brayan Bello is and how good Juan Soto is.
Juan Soto = good at baseball. As seen by him having hits in 6 of his last 9 games against the Red Sox (nice.) He’s just generally mashing the ball right now with an average of 4.3 total bases per game in his last 10 games. Most importantly, he hits RHPs well (Bello is a righty). Bello, coincidentally is worse versus lefties (as is everyone who pitches at Fenway – go figure). Specifically, the fact that Bello has given up 10 HRs to lefties this year and 4 are at home should sound the alarms. 5 Home runs given up in his last 4 Fenway starts – this dude is an animal when it comes to supporting our Dudes Who Dong column.
Anyways, the total is like a billion for this game so a pretty good chance Soto smashes one into a car window (pronounced “cah window” in Boston). We’re taking his over 1.5 Total bases at -105 and his HR at +430.
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases -105 MGM (to win 1U)
HR +430 Caesar’s (risk .25u)
BONUS PICK BECAUSE I THINK BYRON BUXTON MAY NOT PLAY:
Vinnie Pasquantino (Kansas City Royals)
The Pasquatch himself has been on our radar before. In fact, fading The Professor Kyle Hendricks has been a regular occurrence for this column. Combining these two entities in tonight’s Cubs/Royals game.
The Italian Stallion is crushing the ball right now with hits in 8 of 10 and 2 or more hits in 3 of his last 5. The Royals we all know are hitting better at home (wink wink nudge nudge) and it includes the big lefty. Kyle Hendricks has given up 11 dongs to lefties this year and while Vinnie P has never seen the Professor, he does mash all of his pitches (including a .378 wOBA to sinkers which Hendricks has allowed 5 HRs on).
We haven’t had a Pasquach Bomb sighting since July 6th, so professionals would say he is “due”. I just look at him having an average of .435 over the last week and a very low ground ball rate (27.3%) to deduce that he is sending one into a Kansas City BBQ/Fireworks/Adult Store combo establishment. We’re taking his total bases and HR to prove it.
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases +105 MGM (risk 1U)
HR +600 FanDuel (risk .25u)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here
No additional January 6 jokes for me, I’m off to find some new bits. Good luck with your bets, and LET IT RIDE.
