Nothing screams United States of America and the Fourth of July like watching the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Keep reading for my 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting odds and my Hot Dog Eating Contest bets.
At 10:45 A.M. EST in Coney Island, NY, watch the women compete on ESPN3. Then, at 12:30 PM EST on ESPN, watch the men shove and wash Hot Dogs and buns (HDB) down their throats, and maybe lose your own appetite along the way. Joey Chestnut won’t be competing, but that won’t stop me from trying to follow up on my 3-0 article from last year’s event.
CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS
2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds, Picks, And Props
Unfortunately, Major League Eating’s titan, when it comes to hot dogs, Joey Chestnut, will not be competing in this year’s event. Chestnut has been disqualified from this year’s event due to signing a sponsorship deal with a competitor of Nathan’s Famous.
Impossible Foods (the competitor) is a vegan food producer. In 2021, Chestnut set the record, eating 76 HDB. Nobody who will compete in 2024’s contest has ever eaten more than 55 HDB.
Thankfully, we will still be able to watch Joey Chestnut eat hot dogs competitively this year. First, on July 4th, Chestnut will compete against soldiers at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas. Around 15,000 people are expected to attend the event, and Impossible Foods will supply the hot dogs. Also, on Labor Day Monday, you can watch Chestnut take on his rival Takeru Kobayashi in a hot dog-eating contest live on Netflix.
The 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will be headlined by a female, Miki Sudo. Outside of Joey Chestnut, Sudo has been one of the biggest locks in sports. Sudo is a -1200 favorite to win the Women’s competition outright.
Chestnut vs. Kobayashi. LIVE on Netflix. September 2.
Here’s everything you need to know: https://t.co/Hczc3AjtW4 pic.twitter.com/WKnNRBmiTd
— Netflix Tudum (@NetflixTudum) June 21, 2024
The weather is important to handicap, as hot and humid conditions usually mean less HDB eaten. This year, it’s expected to be in the mid-80s with 70% humidity. Unfortunately, that will affect some things, and we probably won’t see some of the higher totals this year.
Women’s Outright Winner: 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
-1200 Miki Sudo
+600 Mayoi Ebihara
+2200 Michelle Lesco
+5000 Katie Prettyman
+5000 The Field
+10000 Larell Marie Mele
Men’s Outright Winner: 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
-115 Geoffrey Esper
+175 James Webb
+650 Nick Wehry
+1000 Patrick Bertoletti
+2500 The Field
+4000 Gideon Oji
+7500 Derek Henderson, Darrien Thomas, Max Stanford, George Chiger
2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Totals: 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
Geoffrey Esper: Over 49.5 (-130), Under 49.5 (+100)
Gideon Oji: Over 36.5 (-115), Under 36.5 (-115)
James Webb: Over 48.5 (-105), Under 48.5 (-125)
Mayoi Ebihara: Over 34.5 (+110), Under 34.5 (-140)
Michelle Lesco: Over 27.5 (+100), Under 27.5 (-130)
Miki Sudo: Over 40.5 (+115), Under 40.5 (-145)
Nick Wehry: Over 46.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-120)
Patrick Bertoletti: Over 44.5 (-130), Under 44.5 (+100)
Miki Sudo + Nick Wehry: Over 85.5 (-130), Under 85.5 (+100)
2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Matchups: 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
(-130) Geoffrey Esper -9.5 vs (+100) Miki Sudo +9.5
(-145) Geoffrey Esper -3.5 vs (+115) Nick Wehry +3.5
(-165) Geoffrey Esper ML vs (+130) James Webb ML
(-135) James Webb -7.5 vs (+105) Miki Sudo +7.5
(+100) James Webb -3.5 vs (-130) Nick Wehry +3.5
(+100) Miki Sudo -6.5 vs (-130) Mayoi Ebihara +6.5
(-125) Nick Wehry -5.5 vs (-105) Miki Sudo +5.5
(-160) Nick Wehry ML vs (+130) Patrick Bertoletti ML
2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Bets
+6.5 Mayoi Ebihara vs Miki Sudo (-130)
Throughout Sudo’s career in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest she has averaged 38.5 HDB consumed. One year, she was in a perfect indoor air-conditioned climate, eating 48.5 HDB. That total is a gigantic outlier in a sample that doesn’t have her eclipsing 41 HDB in any of her other 8 contests. If the outlier is removed Sudo puts down an average of 37.25 HDB.
At the conclusion of last year’s event, Sudo was asked if the weather bothered her.
“Maybe I’m just 10 years older than I was when I first started, but it’s hot,” Sudo stated. “Honestly, what threw me off the most was I was really, really aware that Mayoi was going to pose a threat. So the first couple of minutes, I found myself watching her, which I never want to do.”
Mayoi Ebihara is a rising star in Major League Eating. Ebihara’s YouTube channel has 850,000 subscribers. Hailing from Osaka, Japan, Ebihara’s appetite knows no bounds. 2023 was Ebihara’s first Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Ebihara was standing to the right of Sudo in last year’s contest.
Like I said earlier, last year’s women’s competition featured plenty of drama. Human judges had the live score as Ebihara 34, Sudo 33 with one minute remaining, and at the buzzer, the score had Sudo winning 37-36. Sudo disputed the final score, asking for another official final count. The final score was then adjusted to Sudo 39.5, Ebihara 33.
This year, I expect Ebihara to improve his technique and experience eating in front of a huge crowd. In 2023, we saw Australian James Webb make a massive jump from 41 HDB in his first competition to 47 HDB in his second.
Add in a revenge factor for motivation, and Ebihara should only narrow the 6.5 HDB margin from last year’s official results. I project Sudo to finish around 38 hot dogs and buns while Ebihara finishes with 35.
+6.5 Mayoi Ebihara vs Miki Sudo (-130)
Introducing Mayoi Ebihara
Mayoi is #14-ranked eater in the world and will be representing Japan at the 2024 Nathan’s Famous 4th of July Hot Dog Eating Contest🌭🎆#RoadToConey #RoadToConey2024 #EatingContest #MajorLeagueEating #MLE #NathansFamous pic.twitter.com/jtCfgXGQQT
— Major League Eating (@eatingcontest) June 8, 2024
-7.5 James Webb vs Miki Sudo (-135)
This season, James Webb has smashed SIX Major League Eating records in a five-month span. Webb has eaten 338 Pistachios in 8 minutes, 224 Chicken Wings in 10 minutes, 13.5 lbs of Chocolate Fudge in 8 minutes, 51 2.5oz Texas Sausages in 10 minutes, 350 Donut Holes in 8 minutes, and 70 Glazed Donuts in 8 minutes. Webb is another rising star and is devouring the competition.
Last year, Webb made me a lot of money. Similar to Ebihara, Webb has 102K subscribers to his YouTube channel, and he posted a 10-minute video of himself eating hot dogs just a few weeks before the July 4th competition.
In that video, he consumed 42 HDB in 8 minutes and 30 seconds (he ran out of HDB supply). Webb was on a 12.14-second per HDB pace. With an ample supply of Nathan’s Famous hot dogs, he could eat up to 49.4 HDB in 10 minutes. Webb’s pre-contest Over/Under was set at 41.5 HDB. He ate 47 hot dogs and buns.
This year, Webb hasn’t uploaded a new video. However, he did post on Instagram an NBCDFW news hit that he was featured on. The interview B-roll featured Webb’s workout regimen, which includes treadmill work while simultaneously exercising his jaw.
More B-roll from the interview included a filmed practice run! Although she didn’t say how many he ate, her exact words were, “nearly 50 hot dogs.”
Webb also stated in the interview that he was aiming for 55 HDB. We don’t need 55. All we need is a total in the high 40s to cover this number against Miki Sudo. I project Webb to finish with 49 HDB compared to 38 for Sudo.
-7.5 James Webb vs Miki Sudo (-135)
MIKI SUDO EARNS HER NINTH NATHAN’S FAMOUS HOT DOG CONTEST TITLE! 39.5 HOT DOGS DOWN! 💥🌭pic.twitter.com/HteQjesXRp
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) July 4, 2023
+1000 Patrick Bertoletti Men’s Outright Winner
Patrick Bertoletti to win the Men’s contest outright is a great sprinkle. Bertoletti is only 39, but he is not new to the game. Back in 2008, he devoured 38 HDB, 55 in ’09, 37 in 2010, 53 in 2011, and 51 in 2012. Bertoletti then retired from Major League eating for 10 years.
He returned to the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating contest in 2022 and ate 33.5 HDB. In a recent episode of the “Hall of Very Good Podcast” Bertoletti stated that he just “wasn’t happy” in ’22. He didn’t appear in Coney Island for the 2023 contest but poses a threat to the 2024 competition without Joey Chestnut.
During the Cleveland, Ohio Qualifier, Bertoletti ate 48.25 HDB. He narrowly edged out Nick Wehry (48) to win the qualifier. It should be noted that the weather in Cleveland on June 6th, the day of the qualifier, was in the low 70s with only 20% humidity. That will be nothing compared to the conditions we see on Thursday.
Either way, Bertoletti has shown the ability to put down a high number of HDB in 2024. The volatility early in his career makes this a super fun and sweaty bet. Bertoletti owns the three highest HDB totals in this year’s contest. Geoffrey Esper is the only one who has also put down 50 hot dogs and buns in this year’s competition. Esper, 49, is ten years older than Bertoletti.
If you’re not willing to risk it all on the outright, take Bertoletti on the moneyline against Wehry since he beat him just one month ago.
+130 Patrick Bertoletti ML vs Nick Wehry
+1000 Patrick Bertoletti Men’s Outright Winner
#4 Patrick Bertoletti finished the Cleveland qualifier with 48.25 dogs and instantly became someone to watch out for. Bertoletti is ranked just 9th in Major League Eating, but a good performance in the Hot Dog Contest could bump him up in rankings. pic.twitter.com/EPn6aVQqAW
— BonusFinder (@bonusfindercom) July 2, 2024
+175 James Webb Men’s Outright Winner
Without Joey Chestnut, up to four competitors have a realistic shot at winning this year’s contest. Esper is -105. I disagree with laying a minus-price on a 49-year-old who has the most pressure placed upon him in his career. Esper has long been in the shadow of Joey Chestnut. Now he is the star of the show and the favorite to win. Can he deliver? I am looking elsewhere.
First, we have a pizza bet on Bertoletti, the most volatile competitor in the field. Second, it’s a good idea to get a position on the competitor peaking at the right time: James Webb.
In that podcast episode Bertoletti was featured on he stated that “James Webb is the favorite.” Even though Webb isn’t Las Vegas’ favorite, I’ll take the opinion of a guy competing in the contest.
Webb is carrying a ton of momentum into Coney Island this year. As previously mentioned, Webb ate 51 (2.5 oz) Texas Sausages. Those wieners are more than double the size of Nathan’s hot dogs (but they need to eat buns, too). More notably, Webb defeated Esper in that contest.
+145 James Webb Men’s Outright Winner
Introducing James Webb!
James is the #5-ranked eater in the world and will be representing Australia at the 2024 Nathan’s Famous 4th of July Hot Dog Eating Contest🌭🎆
#EatingContest #MajorLeagueEating #MLE #NathansFamous #NathansFourthOfJuly #ConeyIsland #JulyFourth pic.twitter.com/xisZGAs5FR
— Major League Eating (@eatingcontest) June 10, 2024
