Chicks dig the long ball, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props (aka “Dudes Who Dong”) to play on June 28, 2024, across all MLB action.
“You’re telling me Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball?!?” – Major League
We went 1-1 last week (random Tyler O’Neill being scratched), and Nick Bad News brought us home with an absolute nuke that we cashed at +470 in honor of Donald Sutherland. We’re 5-2 in our last 7 article plays. That’s very good. As your Doctor of Dong, I’m on call now and ready for this week’s edition…
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Three Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – June 28, 2024
Lane Thomas (Washington Nationals)
The Lane Train is back, baby. Injured at the start of the year, everyone’s favorite locomotive lover is hitting .310, carrying a .996 OPs with a wRC+ of 171 the last three weeks. He’s been running a train on RHPs lately – hits in seven straight, eight of ten, and 16 of his last 20 games.
I know what you’re thinking – “Doctor Dong, isn’t Lane Thomas better against lefties?” and I would say “somewhat true”. Lane has traditionally crushed lefties, but he’s hitting so well against both sides that I like the matchup.
Additionally, Tampa Rays starter Zach Eflin is considerably worse against righties than he is against lefties (this is why we’re not on CJ Abrams). Eflin has given up 9 HRs to RHBs vs only 3 to LHBs—the chart below from Outlier.Bet gives you a good look at how Lane’s power metrics tick up a bit and Eflin’s pitcher advantage decreases.
Most importantly, Lane absolutely clubs sinker balls (Eflin’s favorite pitch) and hits .318 off them. Most of the home runs Eflin has given up came off his curveball – Lane has a wOBA of .387 against those.
We’re thinking full game here, too – if the Rays go to a lefty in the ‘pen, we’re covered since Lane hits .322 off them; if they don’t and stick with righties, we are good since Lane is mashing those guys right now. It’s a win-win for our guy.
We’re going to take his o1.5 Total Bases, a prop he’s hit in 8 of his last 10 and 6 straight vs RHPs. Oh, and of course, we’re taking him to hit one into a Tampa Hooters establishment at XXX. CHOO CHOO for the LANE TRAIN!
Lane Thomas o1.5 total bases +130 MGM (risk 1U)
HR +650 FanDuel (to win .5u)
Rafael Devers (Boston Red Sox)
My group text has an inside joke that whenever Rafael Devers hits a home run, Justin Byers will reply all with “DEEEEEEEVVVEERRRRRRS”.
This joke has been going on for three years and is effectively our version of the Simpsons’ “Say the Line, Bart”. We love Devers, and for a good reason – the dude is an absolute stud, hitting .301 vs. RHP with an ISO (nerd talk for total bases ability) of .337. Seriously, what!??!
On the other side, we have Randy Vásquez, who kind of stinks. He’s had a SIERA of over 6 the last three weeks (that’s bad; SIERA is another nerd stat that is better than ERA and takes luck and field play out of the equation) and is especially bad against lefties—they’re hitting over .450 against Randy.
Besides the fact that the Red Sox play in a small ballpark that dimensions-wise benefits lefties, we get a matchup between a dude who hits righties and a pitcher who stinks against lefties. That is hashtag-blessed, but if you want actual data to back this up, I could tell you that Randy has a BAA of .474 vs LHH on the road.
I could also tell you that Randy throws mostly fastballs and curveballs, and Devers has wOBAs of .391 and .371 against those pitches, respectively. Devers also has seen Big V before and already clubbed a dinger off him. No one likes Friday more than our guy Rafi, and that’s why he’s mashing one today.
Going to take his total bases at a slightly juiced -120 (you can handle it, I promise) and his dong at +375 since he’s sending one into the Charles River.
Rafael Devers o1.5 Totals Bases -120 Caesar’s (to win 1U)
HR +375 MGM (to win .5u)
Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees)
The Yankees are in a free fall. There, I said it. 2-8 in their last 10. It’s over. Sorry, New York, sorry, Dinosaur Teeth Aaron Judge, sorry, Dumb Dumb Booney.
But it’s really never over when Yusei Kikuchi is on the opposing side, so this is a bounce-back spot for the Bronx Bombers. By the way, if you still call them the Bronx Bombers, you are a boomer, and no one thinks you’re cool. I digress…
We’re not taking Soto or Judge – the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. Will they probably hit? Sure. Do I feel like touting a HR at +200? No.
Enter our hero: Anthony Volpe. No one told Anthony that the Yankees are in a free fall – he has hits in 15 of his last 20 games and 8 of his last 10 vs LHP. All of the dude’s metrics go up against Southpaws and Kikuchi stinks.
His ERA, line drive, HR, and FB rates all go up against right-handed hitters. He’s given up 10 home runs to right-handed batters. That’s insane.
Volpe bats leadoff, so we know he’ll get the chances here. He also hits all of Kikuchi’s pitches well, sans the curveball. Willing to overlook that since he’s seeing all pitches well right now and hitting.
Plus, we think long game here – Volpe has success against all of the Jays high-leverage bullpen guys (Green, Cabrera, and Pearson). This means we are still very much alive even after Yusei gets bombed on early.
It’s not going to matter when the son of Michael and Isabelle Volpe hits one into the seats of Rogers Center in his first at-bat.
We’re taking his o1.5 total bases at +100 here because he’s hit this in six of his last ten games against left-handed starters. Again, not going to matter when he cashes it on the +800 dong we’re betting too. Ship it.
Anthony Volpe o1.5 Total Bases +100 FanDuel (risk 1U)
HR +800 FanDuel (risk .1u)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here
I’ll see you guys next week to count the winnings, but for now, enjoy these home run props for today, June 28, and LET IT RIDE.
