Torn on which way to lean on the games this special Thanksgiving week of football? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 14 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week.
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! The favorites have been hitting at a crazy rate. Will they continue? Last week, we finished 4-1, bringing our six-week record to 34-14, which is winning us cash! Let’s win some more cash this weekend!
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2023 NFL Week 14 Trends To Bet: NFL Betting Trends To Back
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-11)
These two teams just played on Thanksgiving in Seattle. The result of that game? San Francisco won on the road in a hostile environment, 31-13. The 49ers are just coming off of crushing the Eagles. They’ll have to let the emotions of that win go quickly and focus as they have another big spread to cover. The Seahawks, on the other hand, went toe-to-toe with Dallas but lost by six. Which teams do the NFL Week 14 trends to bet favor?
The 49ers have been unbelievable against all teams. This includes the NFC West, where they are 14-1 against the spread (ATS). They’re also 10-0 ATS when on a winning streak of three or more games. Against defenses that are non-aggressive, such as Seattle’s, they are 7-0 ATS. They’re also 8-2 ATS in second games of the season versus opponents.
Seattle has struggled in December. They’re 1-6 ATS in December. While Carroll is good as a dog, he’s not good as a big road dog. The Seahawks are 2-8 ATS on the road when they’re underdogs of 10 or more points. Seattle also tends to struggle in December. They are 1-6 ATS in the last seven December games. Seattle has also struggled against teams that are top ten in rushing. They are 1-8-1 ATS against top-10 rushing teams. Christian McCaffrey currently leads the league in rushing.
The Pick: Favorites roll again, 49ers (-11 on BetRivers)
LA Rams @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)
The Rams looked like they were going to be in a nail-biter last week. Then suddenly, they put the pedal to the metal and won 36-19. The Ravens got to rest last week and prepare for the Rams. With the Chiefs struggling, the number-one seed in the playoffs is the Ravens to lose. If Patrick Mahomes has to go to Baltimore in January to try and win in the playoffs, things could get interesting. Do we keep betting on them or fade them according to the NFL Week 14 trends to bet?
Speaking of the Rams, while they’ve been decent in December, they’ve struggled against top-10 defenses on the road. In fact, in the last 39 games on the road against top-tier defenses, they’re 9-30 ATS. They also seem to peak out after three straight wins. The Rams are 3-12 ATS on winning streaks of three or more games. Finally, the Rams don’t do well when they are underdogs of a touchdown or less. They are currently 3-11-1 as seven or more point underdogs on the road.
It feels like not enough people are talking about the Ravens and the season they are having. Now, they’re coming off a long rest, and that has benefited them in the past. The Ravens are 58-37-1 ATS on more than six days of rest. They’re also 6-1 when their opponent has to travel 1000 or more miles like the Rams do. They’re 10-5 ATS before playing Jacksonville. Finally, remember how the Rams tend to struggle to cover after winning three straight? The Ravens are good at stopping that from opponents as well. They’re currently 12-3 ATS against opponents that are on winning streaks of three or more games.
The Pick: Ravens (-7 on BetRivers)
Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders
This is a rare matchup of two teams coming off the same bye week. The Vikings needed it after losing a divisional matchup against the Bears. The Raiders also lost the Chiefs before the bye. It was a game they probably feel like they gave away after starting with a 14-0 lead. So, which of these playoff-hopeful teams can continue making the push? Let’s see what the NFL Week 14 trends to bet say.
The Vikings have been really good on the road. They’re 6-0-1 ATS on the road with O’Connell as the coach. They’re also 9-0-1 ATS on the road after a close straight-up loss. The Vikings are 7-0 ATS on the road against an opponent coming off a straight-up loss and 6-0-1 ATS as favorites of seven points or less. They are also 6-1 on the road in AFC games. The Vikings have been so good on the road. Can the Raiders stop them?
The Raiders haven’t been the best at home, especially before playing the Chargers. They are 1-13-1 ATS at home before playing the Chargers. They are also 18-32 ATS at home against an opponent coming off a loss. They’re 8-17 ATS playing teams that played Monday night for their last game and 1-6 ATS after playing Kansas City. The betting trends don’t look good for the Raiders playoff hopes.
The Pick: Vikings (-3 on BetRivers)
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ New York Giants
As a Bears fan, I don’t want to say it. As a bettor trying to help us all win money, I have to. How about those Packers? They have looked much better within the last couple of weeks and put a stamp on their push for the playoffs with a win over the Chiefs. The Giants haven’t been great, but Tommy DeVito has given them something spicy to talk about. Which team do the NFL Week 14 trends to bet support?
The Packers are pushing for the playoffs. If it ended today, they’d be the seventh seed. They are 6-1 ATS when playing an opponent coming off a bye. They’re also 8-2 ATS against an opponent that has the Saints on deck. You’d think playing on Sunday night would hold them back, but they’re actually 25-11-1ATS after playing on Sunday night. Maybe it was the Rodgers magic, or maybe it’s just the Packers. However, they’re 59-37-2 ATS in December.
Tommy DeVito has looked good. However, can he beat a team that the Chiefs couldn’t? The Giants are 4-11 ATS on more than 13 days rest, including 1-6 ATS at home. Unlike the Packers, they struggle in December. They’re 8-2 ATS at home in December in the last 10. The Giants aren’t good at home in general, where they are 19-29-2 ATS. They are also 24-35-3 ATS at home. This one will take a miracle for them to stay competitive.
The Pick: Packers (-6.5)
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
The Dolphins can’t keep covering these double-digit spreads, is a phrase I’ve heard multiple people say. Well, they have. Including double-digit covers on the road in New York and Washington. Now they return home to face a Titans team that hasn’t only been bad but has been very bad at home. Miami is 5-0 at home, and the Titans are 0-6 on the road. That alone seems like enough to make our pick, but let’s see what the NFL Week 14 trends to bet say.
The Titans’ road struggles are really bad this year, but it’s not just this year. They’re 2-8 ATS on the road against the AFC East. They’re 2-8 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Titans are also 1-6 ATS on the road after a straight-up loss and 2-8 ATS in December. They’re also 1-6 ATS against the AFC this year and 17-32-1 ATS against an opponent that is on a winning streak of three or more games.
The Dolphins have been excellent at home and excellent against bad teams. The Titans are a bad team. The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS against teams with a losing record and 13-2 ATS at home after a straight-up win. They are also 6-1 ATS at home after a blowout win. Tua is 11-4 ATS at home in his last fifteen, and the Dolphins are 7-1 in the last eight games as favorites. They are also 8-2 when the total is 45 or more points, like this one, and 33-17 ATS at the Hard Rock Stadium.
The Pick: Fins Up – Dolphins (-13.5 on BetRivers)
