With two wins in Arizona, the Texas Rangers are now in control of the 2023 World Series and, being up 3-1 in the best-of-seven affair, are one victory away from celebrating their first title in franchise history.The Rangers were able to defeat rookie sensation Brandon Pfaadt in Game 3, even though he had everything in place to win and thrive, and the Diamondbacks’ bullpen in Game 4, both played at Chase Field. Now, Texas is a whopping 10-0 on the road during the 2023 playoffs and now owns the longest winning streak to open a postseason in MLB history. Tonight, both teams will play Game 5 in Phoenix: the Diamondbacks are already in win-or-go-home mode, while the Rangers can win it all, and if they don’t, they will have two more games at home to wrap things up. Let’s get into my World Series Game 5 Preview!
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks World Series Game 1 Preview & Predictions
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Game Information & Odds
When: Wednesday, November 1, 2023, at 8:03 PM ET
Where: Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
How to Watch on TV: FOX
Pitching Matchups
Texas Rangers: Nate Eovaldi
Post Season: 4-0, 3.52 ERA, 30.2 IP, 36 K, 5 BB, 1.04 WHIP
Regular Season: 12-5, 3.63 ERA, 144 IP, 132 K, 47 BB, 1.14 WHIP
Arizona Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen
Post Season: 2-2, 5.27 ERA, 27.1 IP, 18 K, 13 BB, 1.50 WHIP
Regular Season: 17-9, 3.47 ERA, 210 IP, 220 K, 47 BB, 1.12 WHIP
With both squads being tested depth-wise in Games 3 and 4, Game 5 will feature both aces: Zac Gallen for Arizona and Nathan Eovaldi for Texas. The Rangers got the better end of those last two contests when it comes to pitching, with Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, and Andrew Heaney combining for 11 innings with just one run allowed.
The D-Backs will need Gallen to be at the top of his game, and that hasn’t been the case in the postseason. In five starts, he owns a disappointing 5.27 ERA, far worse than the 3.47 mark he posted in the regular season.
We have seen Gallen come through when his team needed him the most before, and pitching in front of his home crowd could energize him. He might be tired after a long season, but he knows this would be his last start of the year and will give his all.
In regular season play, Gallen had a 2.47 ERA at home compared to a 4.42 mark on the road. He has only pitched six frames in Chase Field in the whole postseason, compared to 21.1 as a visitor.
Eovaldi has been marvelous in the playoffs, not only in 2023 but also for his career. It’s hard to bet against him, but the D-Backs showed in Game 1 of the World Series that he is not perfect: that day, he allowed five earned runs and couldn’t complete five frames.
Keys To the Game
The key to Game 5 will be how deep and how effectively Gallen will pitch tonight. It’s that simple: the D-Backs bullpen has seen a lot of activity in the last two days without too much rest.
There is an important thing to note here, though: Arizona’s “Big 3” in relief, Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, and Paul Sewald, didn’t pitch in Games 3 and 4. They will be ready to go tonight, and those three names plus Gallen will basically be the game plan. It’s not a bad spot to be for this specific matchup.
As it has happened during the whole series, the offense will be the key for the Rangers. Corey Seager has a 1.135 OPS for the playoffs, with six homers and 12 RBI. Semien had a triple and a home run on Tuesday and seems to be waking up, and Josh Jung went 3-for-5 in Game 4.
If they chase Gallen from the game early, they will be in the driver’s seat to get the win in Game 5 and take the Fall Classic.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
With Gallen pitching at home and the D-Backs’ three best relievers fresh and restored, I’m taking the Diamondbacks to win Game 5 of the World Series. It probably won’t be easy, and Eovaldi is equipped to go long if necessary and “hide” the Rangers’ so-so bullpen, but Arizona has every motivation to play their hearts out to extend the series and go to Texas looking for the miracle.
Arizona showed, on Saturday, that they can score runs in bunches and can put together rallies. They even did it on Tuesday in their 11-7 loss. The challenge will be stopping that excellent Ranger offense from scoring themselves.
On Tuesday, Texas needed just two innings to cross the plate a whopping 10 times: five in the second and five in the third. Avoiding the big inning will be crucial for Gallen and the Diamondbacks’ relievers, but they have what it takes to take the victory on Wednesday.
They also have to take advantage of the fact that Scherzer and Adolis García will be out for the remainder of the series, and those are two major absences for Texas.
The Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-108)
Player Prop
Gallen’s postseason numbers have been incredibly disappointing. However, doubting his quality would be foolish at this point, with the man dominating for multiple years now. Wednesday will be the biggest start of his career, and it will be at home, where he has been so good in 2023.
It might not always be pretty, but Gallen will get the job done tonight and deliver a quality start. In fact, we would bet the under in three earned runs allowed. We are actually betting the World Series will return to Texas.
The Pick: Zac Gallen Under 3 Earned Runs (+105)
