The Arizona Diamondbacks have seemed to be in control of the World Series far more often than the Texas Rangers. Yet the teams are tied at one win for each side because the “Power Rangers” were at it during Game 1, and Corey Seager and Adolis García virtually won the game on Friday.
Now, after splitting the first two in Arlington, the series is moving to Arizona, where the two squads will lock horns in Chase Field for the next three games.
Rangers vs Diamondbacks World Series Game 3 Preview & Predictions
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Game Information & Odds
When: Monday, October 30, 2023, at 8:03 PM ET
Where: Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
How to Watch on TV: FOX
Pitching Matchups
Texas Rangers: Max Scherzer
Post Season: 0-1, 9.45 ERA, 6.2 IP, 6 K, 3 BB, 1.80 WHIP
Regular Season: 13-6, 3.77 ERA, 152.2 IP, 174 K, 45 BB, 1.12 WHIP
Arizona Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt
Post Season: 0-0, 2.70 ERA, 16.2 IP, 22 K, 3 BB, 1.08 WHIP
Regular Season: 3-9, 5.72 ERA, 96 IP, 94 K, 26 BB, 1.41 WHIP
Now that both teams have “burned” their aces, Games 3 and 4 of the World Series will really test their pitching depth. In that regard, the Diamondbacks seem to have the better hand because Brandon Pfaadt has been pitching like an ace in the postseason after a dreadful regular season.
Pfaadt has learned to trust his stuff and has accumulated 50 whiffs in four playoff starts, using his four-seam fastball up in the zone and the rest of his breaking stuff down to really thrive. His 2.70 EA in October is a consequence of his own improvements and the fact his manager has really chosen his spots with him.
Scherzer, on the other hand, made a miraculous recovery from a September teres major strain and might not be fully healthy. He is still rusty, as evidenced by his AL Championship Series performance against the Houston Astros.
Keys To the Game
For the D-Backs, the key will be not letting Max Scherzer get in a groove. He will likely try to find the zone, so Arizona would be smart to attack him early in the game. If he can get through two or three innings scoreless, the home club will likely be in trouble.
As for the Rangers, the opposite might be true. Exercising some patience could help them solve Pfaadt, whose pitches have so much natural movement that some of them don’t find the strike zone.
If the Rangers can get to the D-Backs bullpen early, they have the upper hand. Pfaadt probably won’t go too long anyway, but the difference from having Arizona’s relievers throw three innings to five or six could be significant in the series.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
If the Rangers were the favorites behind their ace and playing at home in Game 1 of the World Series and the D-Backs were favored to take Game 2, it means the series is very much close and competitive, and anything can happen from this point forward. It’s now essentially a best-of-five matchup with three games in Arizona, where the D-Backs are 3-1 in the 2023 playoffs.
The Rangers lead all playoff teams with 78 runs scored, but Pfaadt has been amazing in postseason play, and manager Torey Lovullo has learned that his leash with him should be short.
His strategy has worked wonders, and since he trusts his bullpen, we can expect a relatively short outing for Pfaadt, even if he is dealing. He is, however, sporting a perfect 0.00 ERA in 10 October innings at home.
Scherzer is not reliable at this point (and might be dealing with an additional, albeit minor, injury), having struggled in his two League Championship Series outings against Houston. I like the D-Backs to win by at least two runs, so betting on the run line would be smart. They have managed to score 14 runs in the first two games of the Fall Classic and are getting hot at the right time.
The Pick: Diamondbacks Run Line (-1.5) +190
Player Prop
Pfaadt has 22 strikeouts in 16.2 postseason innings. He will be making his first career World Series start, but while he may not last long on the mound, recent performance indicates he can succeed and rack up the Ks even if he doesn’t clear the six-inning threshold.
In his last two games in October, he struck out nine and seven hitters, respectively. If 6.5 is the number here, I’m taking the over and not looking back. He is capable of clearing that bar even without completing five innings, as he did in his last game.
The Pick: Brandon Pfaadt Over 6.5 Strikeouts +360
