What’s up, everyone? If you are unfamiliar with this post or new to the subreddit, one of the things we love to take a look at each week here is the NFL betting lines that follow along with the betting strategies that Stanford Wong outlined for us regarding Week 3 NFL Wong Teasers. YES, if you look below, they don’t follow along exactly with how he set it out for us, but I have done extensive research into the historical data and outlined the reasoning for how we do it here.
If you want some more info on Wong Teasers in general, please check out this Wong Teaser Basics Article I wrote over the summer.
Another great start to the season! Our ONLY loss this week was just an awful beat. The Bears are in complete disarray, and I’m not sure I can bet on them again after that last-second debacle. I’ve got to see something out of Justin Fields before I think about betting them in any way again.
This week, I have already bet the Colts +7.5 and the Texans +9.5, so I won’t be playing the Ravens or the Jags. This is one of my rules because there is no sense in teasing the opposite side of a bet you have and trying to middle.
And…as a Steelers fan. I am avoiding the Steelers this week. We, for some reason, always suck against the Raiders, and the offense on Monday was worse than horrendous. Need to see something from them before I bet them again.
Be sure to follow me here on Reddit as well as my Twitter for all of my updates and gambling content.
Usually, I will try and do this post on Wednesday-Friday every week of the season to help you track how they are doing and give you the lines that meet the Week 3 NFL Wong Teasers criteria at the time of posting.
Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 3 NFL Wong Teasers
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
Sweetheart Teasers
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers.
– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½
– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Week 2 Results
Below are the results from the previous week based on the closing line:
| 6 Point Teaser Lines | Total | Result |
| Bears +2.5 | 40.5 | LOSS |
| Titans +2.5 | 45 | WIN |
| 49ers -7.5 | 45 | WIN |
| Cowboys -8.5 | 38.5 | WIN |
| Steelers +2 | 38.5 | WIN |
| Panthers +3 | 39.5 | WIN |
| Bills -7.5 | 47 | WIN |
| Ravens +3 | 45.5 | WIN |
| Packers +3 | 40.5 | WIN |
| Jaguars +3 | 50.5 | WIN |
| 10 Point Teaser Lines | Total | Result |
| Bears +2.5 | 40.5 | WIN |
| Steelers +2 | 43.5 | WIN |
| Titans +2.5 | 45 | WIN |
| Patriots +2 | 47 | WIN |
Week 3 Lines
Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.
This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart, so you can reference it as you build your NFL Week 3 teasers.
| 6 Point Teaser Lines | Total | 6pt Record since 2019 |
| Jaguars -8.5 | 43.5 | 0-0 |
| Ravens -7.5 | 45.5 | 6-2 |
| Jets +3 | 37 | 10-1 |
| Saints +2 | 42 | 6-5 |
| Titans +3 | 39 | 9-2 |
| Steelers +2.5 | 43.5 | 6-3 |
| Rams +2.5 | 44 | 7-3 |
| 10 Point Teaser Lines | Total | 10 pt Record since 2019 |
| Bears +2.5 | 40.5 | 10-2 |
| Steelers +2.5 | 43.5 | 6-1 |
| Saints +2 | 42 | 3-1 |
| Rams +2.5 | 44 | 4-2 |
So how do I bet these?
Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers, taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends.
2023 Results
| Teaser | Line | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | +1 ½ thru +3 | 13-2 | 86.67% |
| 6 pt | -7 ½ thru -9 | 3-0 | 100% |
| 10 pt | +1 ½ thru +2 ½ | 7-1 | 87.5% |
| 10 pt | -10 thru -10.5 | 0-0 | 0% |
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 5-1 | 83.33% |
| 2 | 10-1 | 90.91 |
If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets, continue below…
Historical Wong Teaser Stats
| Teaser | Year | Spread | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +3 | 59-18 | 76.62% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +3 | 52-18 | 74.29% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +3 | 60-16 | 78.95% |
| 6 pt | 2021 | +1½ thru +3 | 67-17 | 79.76% |
| 6 pt | 2022 | +1½ thru +3 | 61-21 | 74.39% |
| 6 pt | 2018 | -7½ thru -9 | 18-3 | 85.71% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | -7½ thru -9 | 13-4 | 76.47% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | -7½ thru -9 | 25-3 | 89.29% |
| 6 pt | 2021 | -7½ thru -9 | 24-5 | 82.76% |
| 6 pt | 2022 | -7½ thru -9 | 15-6 | 71.43% |
| 10 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +2½ | 35-3 | 92.1% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +2½ | 35-5 | 87.5% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +2½ | 34-6 | 85% |
| 10 pt | 2021 | +1½ thru +2½ | 36-3 | 92.3% |
| 10 pt | 2022 | +1½ thru +2½ | 48-9 | 84.21% |
| 10 pt | 2018 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-1 | 90.91% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-3 | 76.92% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | -10 thru -10½ | 8-0 | 100% |
| 10 pt | 2021 | -10 thru -10½ | 13-0 | 100% |
| 10 pt | 2022 | -10 thru -10½ | 9-1 | 90% |
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book, so yours may differ.
Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2022
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 23-8 | 74.2% |
| 2 | 19-5 | 79.19% |
| 3 | 31-3 | 91.18% |
| 4 | 19-9 | 67.86% |
| 5 | 21-5 | 80.77% |
| 6 | 23-9 | 71.88% |
| 7 | 17-8 | 68% |
| 8 | 17-2 | 89.47% |
| 9 | 22-4 | 84.62% |
| 10 | 21-4 | 84% |
| 11 | 20-9 | 68.97% |
| 12 | 28-3 | 90.32% |
| 13 | 22-5 | 81.48% |
| 14 | 25-11 | 69.44% |
| 15 | 25-7 | 78.13% |
| 16 | 31-4 | 88.57% |
| 17 | 11-8 | 57.9% |
| 18 | 4-2 | 50% |
Regarding Game Totals < 49
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
From 2018-2022, here are the statistics, including playoffs:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 301-95 | 76.01% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 230-67 | 77.44% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 64-19 | 77.11% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 86-25 | 77.48% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 63-19 | 76.83% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 14-7 | 66.67% |
Here are the results for 2023:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 13-2 | 86.67% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 10-2 | 83.33% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 5-2 | 71.43% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 3-0 | 100% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 3-0 | 100% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 1-0 | 100% |
