On the heels of a riveting first matchday in the English Premier, bettors have another chance to boost their bankroll this weekend.
Only nine fixtures occupy the Matchday 2 card – Luton Town vs. Burnley received a postponement – with none bigger than Tottenham vs. Manchester United. Elsewhere, Manchester City hosts Newcastle United, Arsenal travels to Crystal Palace, and Chelsea visits West Ham United.
But which games offer bettors the best value for their wager? Allow me to present my pair of plays for Matchday 2 – odds are reflective at the time of writing and are subject to movement.
English Premier League Odds, Predictions: 2 Best Bets for Matchday 2
Newcastle United Goal-Line (+1, -136) vs. Manchester City – BetRivers Sportsbook
Manchester City finds themselves playing on short rest following Wednesday’s UEFA Super Cup fixture AND without key midfielder Kevin De Bruyne. Even for Pep Guardiola, that should prove a big absence. Last season, City saw their expected goal differential per 90 drop by 0.81 without De Bruyne on the pitch.
Although Newcastle United lost the most recent meeting 2-0 at the Etihad, the underlying metrics suggest the match played out closer. City scored two goals off 1.3 expected and only produced a +0.9 expected goal differential for the match, per fbref.com.
Newcastle also operated for most of that match without Alexander Isak, severely limiting their ability to expose a strong City defense. But this was largely a strong Newcastle side when playing away from home. Last season, the Magpies posted a +0.25 road xGDiff per 90 minutes, the fourth-best mark in the Premier League.
Factor in Newcastle’s rest advantage, and it feels more likely Newcastle take points than City winning by two goals. Take this bet at -140 or better.
Crystal Palace Goal-Line (+1, -112) vs. Arsenal – BetRivers Sportsbook
The Gooners delivered a clunker on Matchday 1 against Nottingham Forest and now have to face an upstart Palace side.
Even though they won last year’s meeting at Selhurst Park 2-0, Arsenal came out lucky based on underlying metrics. According to fbref.com, manager Mikel Arteta’s side lost the expected goals battle by 0.2 goals.
Of even greater concern is the fact Arsenal, despite winning last week 2-1 against Forest, lost the expected goals battle. Now, do you find them a sizable road favorite? That makes little sense. On the flip side, Palace emerge from a solid road win against Sheffield. Albeit a comparably weak opponent, they proved a strong home side last season.
Eliminate their fluky home match against Fulham last season, and bettors will find Palace posted a -0.05 home xGDiff per 90 minutes. Just against the top-six sides from last year’s table, they recorded a -0.85 non-penalty xGDiff per 90 minutes at Selhurst Park.
Add in Arsenal drastically overperformed away from home last season (+17 road goal differential vs. +6.4 expected goal differential), and this shapes up a good fade spot.
Take the hosts to do no worse than a one-goal loss at -115 or better.
