SGPN is back once again, bringing you some of the best 2023 NFL Season Long Props to bet on! Make sure to check back weekly for more prop bets, divisional bets, and anything we think can win us some cold hard cash.
Go here for projections on the AFC top seed.
The prop market seems to get overlooked. Most people start to do some sort of NFL research during the offseason, whether that’s for fantasy football purposes or to see which prop bets are out there. Why not put that knowledge to good use? Let’s look at some player props that feel like a nice season-long investment.
“Investing is just for the rich, right?” WRONG, investing is for the smart, forward-thinking crowd!
2023 NFL Season Long Player Prop Bets
Lamar Jackson Regular Season Passing TDs- OVER 22.5 -115(DK)
With newly appointed offensive coordinator Todd Monken coming on board, he should give this offense a bit of a passing boost. Monken’s offense at Georgia ranked second in efficiency in the past two years. Not a bad hire, am I right? Plus, tell me you don’t think Lamar Jackson had a hand in this hiring.
I really feel like 22.5 passing TDs is low. I’d probably take this all the way up to 27 or so. Lamar can come out and pass for 3+ TDs any given week. We could be talking about this hitting halfway through the season! Feel confident in this bet, and thank me later.
Trevor Lawrence Regular Season Passing TDs- OVER 26.5 +100(DK)
Doug Pederson, or as Sean Green would call him, “Dougie P” took 2022 Trevor Lawrence, which by all accounts looked like a beat-up battered shell of his college self, and turned him into a revived premier passer in the NFL. Yes, Lawrence still had some ups and downs last season, but who can forget that incredible comeback win in the AFC wildcard game against the Chargers? Lawrence looked like he was ready to set the world on fire!
Now insert Calvin Ridley into the mix with the already awesome Christian Kirk, resurged Evan Engram, and Lawrence’s college teammate Travis Etienne Jr, and tell me you don’t think Lawrence has the making of a 30+ TD season. I think this number is too low for the weapons he has around him and the natural ability he possesses. Let’s take this one now before the even money line goes away.
Brian Robinson Jr. Regular Season Rushing TDs OVER 6.5 +140(DK)
Brian Robinson is number eight on the field but number one in goal-line carries. Seriously though, who else is Washington going to have to handle goal-line carries? Sure, Sam Howell is sneaky athletic and will probably score a few rushing TDs within five yards, but it’s not entirely smart to have your QB putting his body at risk.
Will they have Antonio Gibson carry the ball around the goal line? I doubt it. Not only has he had an issue with holding onto the ball, but he is also a converted WR, and his body type isn’t exactly that of a bruiser. Will they bring in another back? Could, but I don’t think it would be a big-bodied guy like Zeke or Fournette.
Eric Bieniemy taking the OC job in Washington obviously helps the whole team, and B-Rob is no exception here. Washington’s offense should take a step forward and be more efficient, especially in the RedZone. Let’s hang out hats on Robinson running like a man full of rage fighting to get into the endzone.
Jahan Dotson Regular Season Receiving TDs OVER 4.5 +100(DK)
This could be a big year for Dotson. Second-year player transcending into possible stardom! Ok, maybe I’m a little biased since I’m a Commanders fan. Still, Dotsons production year one speaks for itself.
He tied for the most receiving touchdowns by a rookie last year with seven. Christian Watson was the only other rookie to have seven, and people think he will have a good year this year, so why not Dotson?
The addition of Eric Bienimy only helps Dotsons case. That offense will almost certainly be more explosive and take shots downfield more. I’m banking on Dotson getting a nice target share, opportunities to make plays in the red zone, and benefiting from Terry McLaurin drawing more coverage.
Kenneth Walker Regular Season Rushing TDs UNDER 7.5 -105(DK)
I know I’m on an island here, but I think Kenneth Walker is slightly overrated. He wasn’t as efficient as people think he was. Yeah, he made some big plays for the Seahawks, but those runs really helped his yards-per-carry average.
Insert rookie Zach Charbonnet, someone that NFL draft analysts thought was a top-five back in this class, and some thought top-three. I don’t believe the Seahawks just drafted him to play a backup role to Walker. He is probably better around the goal line than Walker is. The bulk of the passing role should be Charbonnets as well.
So we would be banking on Walker to be efficient and explosive enough to have a few breakaways that he can score a TD on. To get this bet at almost even money seems like a fair value. Grab it before training camp because we could see a split closer to 50/50 than some may think.
Cam Akers Regular Season Rushing TDs UNDER 6.5 -115(DK)
“Cam Akers will be a central figure in the Rams offense,” says Sean McVay. Wait a minute, did McVay forget how bad Akers was at the beginning of the 2022 season? I’m assuming he has early-season amnesia and just thinks about what Akers did at the end of the season. When I looked at his 2022 game log, Akers was so much more efficient on his yard-per-carry average in the last six games of the season. He also had more opportunities in that same stretch and scored 6 TDs.
Now why would I want to fade him, you ask? The Rams drafted Zach Evans, have Kyrin Williams, who some analysts thought could be good, and also signed Sony Michel back onto the squad. Sony has been there before and knows the system, so that could lead to a bit more playing time than we believe.
Matthew Stafford is healthy, and as one of his last seasons, if not his last season, he will probably want to show out and throw the ball a bit more than normal. Obviously, that would work against Akers’ opportunities.
In short, I believe Akers would need to be pretty efficient and get a good bulk of the red zone carries to get over 6.5 rushing TDs.
Tim Patrick Regular Season Receiving Yards UNDER 525.5 -110(DK)
Tim Patrick? This guy wants us to make a bet involving Tim Patrick. I can hear it already. Yes, let’s bet against Tim Patrick.
Missed the entire 2022 NFL Season with a torn ACL. Here are the receiving yard totals for the four years prior. 2021 season 734 receiving yards. 2020 season 742 receiving yards. 2019 season, 218. 2018 season 315. In two years, he would have hit over the 525.5 mark, and in two years, he wouldn’t have. Now situations are different from year to year, I get that, but this year’s situation doesn’t seem promising to me.
Coming off an injury, there is always an unknown factor of “Can this player stay healthy?”. On top of that, the Broncos drafted Marvin Mims, who, in his own right, was a great college prospect. With Mims being the first draft pick of the new coach, Sean Payton, I think it’s a safe bet that Mims will get the opportunity to establish himself in this offense. If that happens, Patrick is probably 4th or 5th best on the team for targets. His efficiency would need to be very good for him to get to this number.
Last but not least, the quarterback throwing him the ball is Russell Wilson. How did he do last season? Not great, Bob! Though I believe Russ will be much better this year, I don’t think Tim Patrick will benefit heavily from that.
