The United States Men’s National Team begins their 2023 Gold Cup campaign on Saturday with a home game at Soldier Field in Chicago. Team USA will be looking to continue their recent successes at international tournaments with a successful summer campaign. The Red, White, and Blue advanced to the knockout round of the 2022 World Cup after winning the 2021 Gold Cup.
Despite the US opting to leave off most European players from their roster, they’ll still have high expectations for their opening match. The US is unbeaten in five against Jamaica. This includes four wins. On Saturday, Team USA is a -140 favorite against Jamaica, who are +370 on the three-way moneyline. The draw is priced at +310, with the total set at 2.5 goals, juiced -120 to the under.
United States vs. Jamaica Odds, Prediction: How We’re Betting Saturday’s Gold Cup Match
United States vs. Jamaica Best Bet
Evaluating this version of the USMNT is a bit tricky for bettors, given the lack of recent data for the squad. That fact informs risking only a 0.5 unit to begin the tournament if the transition to lesser-known players leads to a drop-off in the underlying metrics.
That said, it would be the United States or nothing from a side standpoint in this match. In their Nations League tie against Mexico – albeit with a lineup featuring Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna, and other key names – the USMNT won the expected goals battle 1.26 to 0.74, per footystats.org.
Plus, consider just the previous meeting between these two nations in the 2021 Gold Cup. In the match, the USMNT rolled out a rotated squad. And bettors will find a positive result. The hosts won that match 1-0, and the expected goals battle 1.5 to 1.4, again per footystats.org.
Then, in a fall World Cup Qualifier fixture – once again with a top-tier lineup – Team USA won the expected goals battle 2.48 to 0.75. On the flip side, this Jamaica side enters Saturday’s meeting in poor form. Across their last two fixtures, vs. Jordan and Qatar, manager Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side is 0-0-2 (W-D-L) with a -0.15 expected goal differential.
However, even this version of Team USA represents a step up in class for the Jamaicans. They have earned a result in only one of their previous four matches. Combine that record with their struggles above against the United States, and Saturday’s match should prove an uphill climb.
For those reasons, take the United States to earn all three points Saturday on home soil at -150 or better.
United States Moneyline (-140, 0.5 unit)
United States vs. Jamaica Best Prop Bet
The United States offense might see a natural drop-off without players like Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna, and Tim Weah in the lineup, but the defense remains strong.
The “no” side of both teams to score has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these nations. Jamaica failed to score. The only time they successfully registered a tally? On home soil in World Cup qualifying with a fully-loaded attack.
Neither Michail Antonio nor Leon Bailey will feature in this match, dealing a big blow to the Jamaica offense. Pair that with the fact the “no” side of BTTS has cashed in three of the last four Team USA matches. We’ll bank on at least one side failing to score.
Again, only a half-unit play due to the uncertainty, but play to -125.
Both Teams to Score – “No” (-115, 0.5 unit)
