After some bass-ackwards play that transpired in numerous games last Sunday, I’m eager to dive into a Week 5 Main Slate with some superb opportunities at bargain bin pricing at various positions. This slate has some different angles than we may be different than we’re accustomed to in previous weeks in the season to this point, and one glaring one being the lack of Mahomes and the Chiefs, as well as Russell Wilson.
Of course, as we witnessed last week, opportunities rear their heads regardless of the overall quality of the player (see: Wayne Gallman) and it’s a matter of allowing yourself the breathing room mentally to let some pieces just fit.
By this I mean, in other words, don’t overthink it when it comes to what you can afford after you’ve filled out the points of your roster construction you’re trying to hit (if hand-building). Or, in my sake in preparation for Week 4, limiting my exposure to Gallman simply because I was ending up with far more of him in my player pools than I had anticipated…combined with the lingering thoughts about his fumbling history within a small sample size, ignorant of the opponent at hand in the Washington Redskins.
Anyhow, enough about my personal roster “Should Have” hindsight criticisms of last Sunday and let’s move onto the next opportunities in Week 5 for our various entry construction endeavors.
The Gameplan
As I alluded to in the introduction, we’ve got some serious values to seize opportunity from within this slate. While it’s easy to get lost in stockpiling affordable talent at times (depending on the slate), this week’s offering is a generous one in that you have players in great spots spread across different price tiers from the mid-range and below. It’s not often you get a number of the nastier matchups in the top price tier, so it’s definitely due to cluster field ownership in certain areas.
This is where we have to remember in gameplay outside of Cash Games that we’re going to need to utilize an element of contrarianism to differentiate our lineups from the vast majority of rosters constructed around the same limited number of “comfortable” player arrangements that are based on the potential bargain players being overly rostered by the public.
The question is always where exactly you want to try to be different, and this slate provides a plentiful variety of player pivots, so don’t get too caught up in one situation you wind up building around initially. With that said, there’s one spend-up option I do want to assemble value plays around, and that is Viking stud back Dalvin Cook.
With the recent emergence of Jaylen Samuels in the Steelers offense under rookie quarterback Mason Rudolph, he’s an affordable piece that allows for other higher mid-tier talent to fill out your rosters, and along with Cook included in that roster mix.
Finally, nothing’s quite like a player of solid value pricing with a Revenge Game narrative to boot, and Randall Cobb finds himself to be another piece that fits in to allow spend-up power elsewhere as he squares off with his old Packers squad and Aaron Rodgers in his new home at AT&T Stadium. Between players like Cobb and Samuels this week, your options to dish out more of the fantasy salary to the top caliber volume players like Cook are much more flexible and able to pivot in spend-up directions.
UPDATE (10/04):
For once this season there haven’t been too many riveting roster changes throughout the week, so the weekend update doesn’t alter any of the initial strategies I dug into in this article earlier this week. But news of the Stefon Diggs drama suddenly makes him a risky play after missing practice Wednesday, and Coach Zimmer further stating, “I don’t know. We’ll see,” when asked about Diggs’ status Sunday. But he should be easily viewed as a fantastic GPP play should he suit up, and clearly with the risk at hand being acknowledged by all would-be owners.
Davante Adams missed practice all week and will be sitting this one out for Week 5 with turf toe. This makes Marquez Valdes-Scantling an excellent roster selection for both Cash Games and GPP’s, while Jake Kumerow stands as a solid large-field GPP maneuver in mid/large-field tournaments now that he’ll be suiting up. He’s a low-key favorite of Aaron Rodgers, and I believe has a great shot of well-exceeding the fantasy production needed to pay off his price tag.
While Ezekiel Elliott is in a smash spot against this Green Bay Packers run defense, I’m every bit as much about getting the same amount of exposure to David Johnson against this busted Bengals defense. Jaylen Samuels and James Conner shredded Cincinnati with a massive 206 all-purpose yards (140 of those in the receiving game out of the backfield), and I believe Johnson will be relied upon heavily in the same manner as the Steelers tandem were. Both Elliott and Johnson will be the top chalk backs, which is totally fine, because I believe both are good chalk at least. Well, that and I’ll be getting to Dalvin Cook more than either of them and he’s projected everywhere that I’ve seen] for less ownership.
Speaking of Samuels, I will be getting to major shares of him on both DraftKings ($4,100) and FanDuel ($5,000) after seeing the volume he’s be getting recently. He’s absurdly cheap, and Coach Tomlin clearly has grown fond of rotating Samuels in for more than just a breather to James Conner. How about this for some equal shares: against the Bengals last Monday night, both Samuels and Conner had ten carries, eight receptions a piece, and each scored a touchdown as well. I wonder who cost less…
I find the Raiders DST at home to be a very interesting value dart throw considering the condition of the Bears offense, despite a promising outing by Chase Daniel (22/30, 195 passing yds, 1 TD, 0 INT) last weekend against the Vikings, which is not an easy task to say the least. However, Oakland’s defense looked solid for a good portion of the game against Indy last weekend, and returned an interception for a touchdown as well. I wouldn’t go crazy with the notion but I will get to a couple of shares in lineups that are in need of salary relief based on their predominant construction.
Finally, I feel like we’re due for a big Tom Brady week already. Or I’m just a ridiculous homer. Or both.
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater, NO ($5,200 DK/$7,200 FD)
Consideration: GPP (Large-Field Entry Size)
I know, this may seem like a bit of a stretch play given his limited production to this point while filling in for Drew Brees, playing conservative as Saints field general. But Teddy Bridgewater has a dirt-cheap price tag on DraftKings, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the second-most passing yards on the season to their opponents (1,273) and an average of 323.8 yards per game and just allowed Jared Goff to throw for over 500 yards in regulation time (despite intercepting him three times).
While his yardage remains low across the three outings he’s posted, Bridgewater is still averaging 29 pass attempts per game and has only managed to throw one interception thus far. The fact is he’s got a healthy Michael Thomas, along with Alvin Kamara in the passing game as a versatile back option (as you well may know), makes for plenty of case to believe Bridgewater should be able to not only pay off his price tag, but far exceed value. The only challenge remains to achieve passing yards somewhere over 200 and a couple of touchdowns. Against this Bucs secondary, I think much is possible despite their turnover capabilities (tied for second highest with nine takeaways).
If that hits, in conjunction with allowing for a higher ceiling of spending across your other player positions, you’re more than positioned to see paydirt in GPPs. Teddy Bridgewater provides the upside, pivot, and roster flexibility to warrant a couple of spots in your large-field entries.
Philip Rivers, LAC ($5,800 DK/$7,700 FD)
Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)
As reliable as he’s been all season in regards to fantasy production, Philip Rivers is priced egregiously low on DraftKings (while just right on FanDuel, oddly) and has a quite favorable matchup at home in Dignity Health Sports Park (aka: StubHub Center) against a Denver Broncos defense that has yet to register a turnover of any variety over the course of four games.
Tossing for 313.5 passing yards per game through four weeks, Rivers is a no-brainer in Cash Games as he’s also manufacturing 21.72 DraftKings Fantasy Points on average as well. Despite the fact he’s “only” got seven touchdowns (and two INT) over this span of games, his consistent passing yards and minimal turnovers keep Rivers beyond buoyed as a concrete DFS quarterback in Week 5.
Considering this Broncos defense is banged up and, per Football Outsiders DVOA Defensive Efficiency Ratings, ranks 28th overall against the pass, and apparently can’t force a turnover to save their lives. I will be getting to quite a large amount of Philip Rivers in my rosters this weekend, as he will in all likelihood be my most owned fantasy quarterback on the slate, alongside Tom Brady, considering his stable floor and massive upside.
Other Cash Game QB Considerations:
Aaron Rodgers, GB ($6,000 DK/$7,800 FD)
Kyler Murray, ARI ($6,300 DK/$7,400 FD)
Joe Flacco, DEN ($4,700 DK/$6,600 FD)
Carson Wentz, PHI ($6,100 DK/$7,800 FD)
Other GPP QB Considerations:
Tom Brady, NE ($6,500 DK/$7,600 FD)
Deshaun Watson, HOU ($6,700 DK/$8,000 FD)
Jameis Winston, TB ($6,200 DK/$7,600 FD)
LONGSHOT GPP QB:
Chase Daniel, CHI ($4,800 DK/$6,500 FD)
Running Back
Dalvin Cook, MIN ($8,400 DK/$8,200 FD)
Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)
Unless we’re handed another Bizarro NFL Sunday the resembles last weekend’s affairs, Dalvin Cook should be considered the closest thing to a must-play that there is on this slate (in my opinion), and you’d be hard-pressed to find reasoning against rostering him.
Coming in as the third-highest DraftKings fantasy point-getter on the season at 106.4 DKFP, he’s only 1.7 shy of surpassing Austin Ekeler, which shouldn’t be hard given the return of Melvin Gordon. But discussion of fantasy leaders aside, Cook’s been the real deal this season and is getting a more than decent matchup with a Giants rush defense that ranks 16th overall according to the Football Outsiders DVOA Defensive Efficiency ratings. They allowed 144 yards on the ground to the Buccaneers on behalf of Ronald Jones, Peyton Barber, Breshad Perriman, and Jameis Winston, so I’m fairly confident that Cook can do that by himself (or more).
He’s not priced to an extreme, which makes him much easier to attain when especially paired with the likes of a Jaylen Samuels-priced player. For a guy who consists of 40.8% of the Vikings offense to this point all season, it’s another no-brainer on a flexible salaried slate.
Jordan Howard, PHI ($5,100 DK/$6,500 FD)
Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)
With three weeks to start the season leaving DFS players skeptic on which back to use, or if at all, the established role of Jordan Howard in the Eagles backfield seems to have seen the dust [partially] settle and much for the better than for worse. While it was a role in question as to how many shares of the backfield would be surrendered to fellow newly-arrived teammate in rookie Miles Sanders.
It appears that regardless of the fact that Coach Pederson is going to head along the lines of the ever-trendy 50/50 back system to preserve their health, the goal line stockholdership evidently has been firmly claimed by Howard, after smashing on the Packers in Lambeau last Thursday night to the tune of two touchdowns and 87 yards on 15 carries.
Despite the Jets defense ranking eight overall in fewest rushing yards allowed in the league, I feel that the Eagles will come out to an early lead at home and proceed to grind down the clock for enough of the remaining time in the game thereafter to pay off any remaining part of Howard’s price tag if he hasn’t already by that point (the Jets are not good). At his cost and red zone relevance, Jordan Howard is a stellar value play and I will get to a few shares of him at the very least.
Other Cash Game RB Considerations:
Jaylen Samuels, PIT ($4,100 DK/$5,000 FD)
Sony Michel, NE ($5,500 DK/$6,300 FD)
Frank Gore, BUF ($4,700 DK/$5,700 FD)
David Johnson, ARI ($7,500 DK/$6,800 FD)
Mark Ingram III, BAL ($6,300 DK/$7,500 FD)
Other GPP RB Considerations:
Melvin Gordon, LAC ($7,000 DK/$6,800 FD)
Austin Ekeler, LAC ($6,700 DK/$7,200 FD)
James White, NE ($5,000 DK/$6,200 FD)
Ezekial Elliott, DAL ($8,300 DK/$8,800 FD)
Ronald Jones, TB ($4,600 DK/$5,900 FD)
Joe Mixon, CIN ($6,100 DK/$7,100 FD)
LONGSHOT GPP RB:
Peyton Barber, TB ($4,200 DK/$5,300 FD)
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas, NO ($6,600 DK/$7,700 FD)
Consideration: GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)
That lovely matchup against the Swiss cheese Bucs secondary I mentioned? Well, Teddy Bridgewater needs a target to sling that ball to, and even though he’s seen a decline in targets the past two weeks, Michael Thomas is still been the lead target in the Saints offense outside of Week 3, and should be treated as a very promising value at his price tag along with his dynamite upside.
At the same time as you could argue his potential of being limited by the capability of Bridgewater to get him volume, Thomas has still seen an average of 9.66 targets and 17.93 DK Fantasy Points in Brees’ absence and has a major ceiling given his opponent in the Bucs secondary who is ranked 16th against the WR1 position per Football Outsiders.
If he were priced up more in the vicinity of his typical $7,500+ tag, he wouldn’t be quite as an attractive play here, but that’s not the case at all: he’s a steal. At the same time as I won’t go crazy on forcing him into my rosters, I will be getting to at least the field’s share size of Michael Thomas.
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI ($6,000 DK/$5,800 FD)
Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)
Although his Cardinals haven’t achieved their first win yet, Larry Fitzgerald is playing like the Old Reliable we once knew and having a stellar 2019 season in the Air Raid system under Coach Kliff Kingsbury. He’s the 16th overall top targeted player all season with 37 total targets, and considering the looming injury absence to Christian Kirk, Fitzgerald is due to be a top contributor this week in Arizona’s offensive scheme.
Also in Fitzgerald’s favor is facing the Cincinnati Bengals defense, which ranks 31st overall against the pass per Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. With all consideration to Fitzgerald’s consistency, his 17.8 DKFP per game is hard to ignore, particularly at his pedestrian price point.
Fitzy will certainly be chalk central, but as we have learned with various players in weeks past, Good Chalk is not a Loch Ness myth and does actually exist out there (as unappealing the thought). With little else reliable to distribute all those leftover targets to should Kirk miss this week (which appears extremely likely), Larry Fitzgerald is primed to ball out on Sunday in Cincy.
Other Cash Game WR Considerations:
Adam Thielen, MIN ($6,700 DK/$6,900 FD)
Mike Evans, TB ($7,100 DK/$7,700 FD)
Keenan Allen, LAC ($7,300 DK/$7,500 FD)
Julian Edelman, WR ($6,300 DK/$6,500 FD)
Julio Jones, ATL ($7,700 DK/$8,200 FD)
Other GPP WR Considerations:
Randall Cobb, DAL ($4,200 DK/$5,100 FD)
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU ($7,800 DK/$8,500 FD)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB ($5,600 DK/$6,300 FD)
Stefon Diggs, MIN ($6,200 DK/$6,000 FD)
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU ($7,800 DK/$8,500 FD)
Allen Robinson, CHI ($5,600 DK/$6,900 FD)
LONGSHOT GPP WR:
KeeSean Johnson, ARI ($3,500 DK/$4,600 FD)
Tight End
Austin Hooper, ATL ($4,500 DK/$6,700 FD)
Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)
In a drastic difference in pricing between DraftKings and FanDuel, Austin Hooper appears to be a diamond in a rough batch of tight ends in Week 5. The sophomore season for Hooper has been brilliant: even despite a subpar Week 2, Hooper has averaged 18.42 DK Fantasy Points and averaging seven targets a game.
While his spend-up in a half-point PPR environment over on FanDuel may seem unfair, it’s justifiable when there isn’t anyone as consistent at the position at this point this season, and the Texans defense ranks middle-of-the-pack at 14th overall against the tight end position (per Football Outsiders).
Not only do I feel that Hooper is worthy of a long look to make a few of your rosters come Sunday, but I believe his expensive price tag on FanDuel is going to allow for the pivot to differentiate your rosters. However on DK where he’s significantly cheaper, I wouldn’t doubt if he winds up being chalk.
Tyler Eifert, CIN ($3,300 DK/$4,600 FD)
Consideration: GPP (Mid/Large-Field Entry Size)
I know. The Bengals look like garbage in all phases of the game (sorry, Cincy) . However, that’s not to say the Cardinals aren’t a fantastic matchup for Tyler Eifert at a ridiculously low cost.
Facing a Cardinals defense who currently ranks 31st in DVOA against the tight end position, Eifert still manages to get enough targets from Andy Dalton to prove that he may easily be able to pay off his fantasy cost. Besides in Week 3, he’s managed at least five targets and 6.3 DKFP per game so far, but this Cardinals lacking ability to defend tight ends may bump up that net average.
I certainly cringe rostering any Bengals player at the time being, but it often takes such an uncomfortable play to bink a GPP and as an added bonus he’s perfectly cheapened enough to pull in any of the top cost prospects of Week 5.
