Happy Monday y’all, and here’s to hoping you did better than I did this past weekend and survived the spread not being dead. Tonight we head to Mexico where they will play a football game this year, unlike in 2018. Will the Chargers show up in this back against the wall divisional rivalry? Can the Chiefs bounce back from losing to the Titans (I know it seems like they won that game if you just watched the highlights on ESPN)? And of course, Will this be the week that Booger announces he is returning to the field?
For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the market to get you paid on some Monday Night Football prop bets. For more in-depth analysis, listen to the Week 11 Picks Podcast below.
New to betting? Check out how to bet football.
Powered by RedCircle
Season record: 28-29 (-1.1u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday, November 18th @ 5:15 PM Pacific
Location: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Weather: 64f Mostly Cloudy
TV: ESPN
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
MoneyLine: +195 | -240
Total: 53
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag *Promo Code SGP*
Monday Night Football Prop Bets
1. Melvin Gordon Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-140)
Yes, the -140 is daunting, but Gordon has slowing gotten his legs under him and is coming off a 22 carry game. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have given up a ridiculous 5.1 yards per carry to opposing RBs while ranking 31st in DVOA against the run. Run, don’t walk to the window as this number certainly will close north of 80 yards.
2. Over 3.5 FGs (+130)
The elevation at Estadio Azteca is 7200 feet; this is almost a half-mile higher than Mile High Stadium. Not only do I think this will assist the kicker’s ability to extend their range, but it will also lead to fatigue, leading to drives sizzling out short of a TD.
3. Travis Kelce Under 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Kelce sucks vs. the Chargers. In his ten career games vs. the Chargers, he has accumulated a measly 377 yards on 41 catches and 0 TDs. Let’s roll with history here and fade Kelce’s lofty yardage prop.
4. Sammy Watkins Over 4.5 Catches (-105)
The Chiefs have been getting crushed by #2 WRs, and with my expectation that Kelce has a quite game, Watkins is the man here. Oh, and Watkins has only gone under this total once this year!
5. Chargers Team Total Over 23.5 (-115)
On the road, the Chiefs have only held the early season hapless Raiders and Joe Flacco and the Broncos. The Chargers have spent the week at elevation in Colorado Springs and are coming in off long rest. Enjoy cashing this ticket late in the 3rd quarter.
6. 1st TD’s (.25 u each)
I’m going to roll with Sammy Watkins + Damien Williams for the Chiefs. For the Chargers, Ill be rolling with Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon.
- Melvin Gordon +700
- Damien Williams +700
- Sammy Watkins +1200
- Hunter Henry +1200
Good luck and Let It Ride!
